Reversion to the Mean

We are what we repeatedly do. Excellence, then, is not an act, but a habit.--ARISTOTLE

I used to torment an ex-girlfriend with a concept called "reversion to the mean." Reversion to the mean is a concept in statistics where at some point things change back to what they are on average following a series of unusual outliers. The recent implosion in the housing market is one such example of this. The same thing would apply to coin flipping. You can't flip heads forever unless you have a two headed coin.

I apply the same concept to dating. Most people put their best foot forward when they get into a relationship and then devolve from there. This is why we think it is foolish to marry someone after only 24 hours. You need a bigger representative sample to make an assessment.

I try to put my worst foot forward in a relationship. This might seem foolish, but I'd rather a woman think the worst of me and surprise her later. I don't like disappointing people, so I try to hedge by lowering expectations. I can't say I have ever pulled this off as I find women have expectations regardless which you are almost certain not to meet.

As for women, I come in with low expectations, and they have always met them. I know the initial pleasantness of the first encounters will devolve into a mean of low grade misery and will remain there. It takes too much energy to fake it forever.

You can never judge a woman or a man until you know their mean. You must witness their highs, their lows, and their in-betweens. After this, you can make up your mind. I find the extreme events to be tolerable because they are brief and temporary. It is the grind of the mundane that is the real test.

The ex-girlfriend I mentioned was pretty bad. She tried hard but a few outliers could not overcome the mean of abusiveness, drunkeness, and drug abuse that emerged later. I had to walk on this.

I wonder where my own mean is. I know I am not a substance abuser, and I like to work a lot and make money. I am also outspoken in my character and personality and personal beliefs. I overgeneralize. I am ambitious, but I am also a loser. I am also wary to the point of paranoia of getting fucked over. My view of life is generally positive, but my view of human nature is tinged with the negative. I am a nice guy with a streak of meanness in him.

This way of thinking may be analytical, but every level of society employs it to some extent. This is why we have 90 day periods for new employees. This is why we have driving records and credit records and police records. The measure of a person's character is what they are on average.

People do change and adopt a new mean. You are the product of your habits. Drunks can sober up and remain so for decades often becoming obnoxious in their disdain for those who choose to drink. Prisoners can leave prison and turn their lives around. Losers can become winners. But the truth remains. You can change in a day but don't expect everyone to be credulous over it. This takes time. A new mean must emerge.

I know in my own life that I am striving to attain a new mean which I call the next level. They are centered on personal habits. My goals are generally character driven. Running a marathon and finishing it matters less to me than running consistently each day for a lifetime. I wish to work more and better. I want to quit being so disorganized in my life. I figure if I can do that then the achievements will come naturally from that.

I will have more on this when I discuss the Golden Mean. But I judge people by what they are on average. It takes more than a bad day or a bad remark from someone to change my judgment of somebody. I prefer to wait and see. I also know that it is always within me to change people's opinion of me. It just takes time and consistency.

Posted in: