Monday, May 31, 2010

Andrew Marr Summarizes the Climate Debate in Two Paragraphs

From this weekend's FT:

Global warming is dangerously overheated. To the bemused onlooker, it seems to be a branch of predictive science dominated by empurpled men bellowing at one another. Self-righteous doomsters lick their lips as they list the horrors rushing towards us as a direct result of our greed and selfishness. Self-righteous “sceptics” pounce on mistakes by scientists to denounce the whole man-made global warming thesis as a leftish, hairshirt-wearers’ plot.

There is no escape from the shouting. However meticulous the science, prediction is only prediction. As Ian McEwan recently reminded us in his novel Solar, climate science is as riven by ego, jealousy, mixed motives and exaggeration as any other branch of human thought. The range of possible outcomes seems confusingly wide.

Complete Bafana Fan Kit

Here is the list of items that a proper fan of soccer in South Africa should have . . . but the absolute gotta-get souvenir for us Yanks is the vuvuzela, which is a traditional South African stadium horn! Note to students: don't forget to bring your ear plugs!

Svenska Mästerskapet i kettlebells (enarms lång cykel) & en bra fråga


Mer info har kommit upp på Spartans hemsida om SM och med en snygg regel-översikt: LÄNK
Jag vill också påminna om min gamla text "Regler och kommentarer för Girevoy Sport": LÄNK
(Oj! "549 reads" för en text på svenska om en så liten sport)

Lars frågar

I förra inlägget ställde Lars en bra fråga:
Jag är nyfiken på det SM som ska genomföras i Gbg i december. Vet du vart det finns information om tävlingen, ev. kval och vad som är ett konkurrenskraftigt resultat för herrar -85 kg One arm LCCJ 16 resp. 24 kg?
Är nybörjare inom GS och skulle uppskatta lite info.
Mvh Lars

Så här svarade jag:
Hej Lars! Kul att du fastnat för GS också....
Konkurrenskraftigt antal lyft är svårt att svara på eftersom kvalen inte har hållits :-). Det är inte heller ett traditionellt lyft för herrar så det finns inte så mycket resultat från andra tävlingar att titta på.

Vild gissning:
65/65 med 16kg skulle vara mycket bra - kanske vinnaren?
50/50 med 24kg skulle nog också kunna vara en vinnare bland herrar.

De två gissningarna ligger ju ganska nära varandra, men det är för att jag tror att det är svårt att hinna fler repetitioner på den givna tiden.

Så långt så väl. För mina gissningar tittade jag bland annat på WKC's ranktabell för damer som finns i högerkolumnen.

Men sen' tänkte jag att Lars kanske inte menade "konkurrenskraftig" i bemärkelsen att man ska vinna SM:et - utan var man bör ligga för att kunna vara med utan att behöva skämmas. Jag vet ju inte om det var så Lars tänkte, men det är en fråga som många andra har ställt mig. Jag - och andra - har också ställt den frågan till arrangörer av andra tävlingar. Svaret blir alltid, uppfyller man de formella kriterierna på tävlingsinbjudan så är man hjärtligt välkommen. Punkt.

Jag menar att det viktigaste är inte hur många reps man gör. Det är roligare för alla om det är fler som deltar. GS är ju en individuell sport så gör du bra eller dåligt ifrån dig så berör det ju egentligen ingen annan.

Det viktiga är snarare att man gör sitt bästa att följa reglerna. Viktigast av allt är givetvis att tänka på säkerheten, särskilt under uppvärmningen får man vara på sin vakt så att man har fritt utrymme omkring sig. Ingen show-off av fräcka men farliga tekniker där vikten kan flyga iväg.

Sen' får vi se hur det blir med kvalen. Är det väldigt många som vill vara med, så kanske alla inte kan vara med. Var med i kvalen, det är ett bra sätt att vänja sig vid tävlingsformatet så blir det inte så mycket nytt i december.

Här är ju en film som jag gjort och lekt vilt med min nya software. Kort men naggande god och oa lc:

LCCJ

Lccj 2x20kg: 5
Lccj 2x24kg: 5, 32, 21, 10
Lccj 2x26kg: 5
Lccj 2x20kg: 20

Snatch 12kg: 30/30 (glove)

Gloves... to use them while grip is pre-exhausted is probably the way. Great to be able to snatch after a lc-session, by the way.

Twitter Deactivation

I have decided to stop with Twitter. I have stopped posting to it anyway, and I see it as a colossal timesuck. I have never liked the service. Twitter feeds that I enjoyed I now send to my Google Reader. Otherwise, I am not a Twitter fan.

I am simplifying my presence on the internet. I try to keep it simple. My next task will be to edit the feeds on my Google Reader.

Happy Memorial Day - A Man of Resolve


Happy Memorial Day!

Thank you to everyone who has served our country with virtue. We appreciate everything you have done for us.

Here is a 1 minute video of Coach Dan Duddy thanking his father, WW II vet Francis Xavier Duddy may he rest in peace, for being a servant and a man of resolve.


Sunday, May 30, 2010

A 'Successful' Bicycle Blog?

Today I received an email from a reader asking for "tips on how to run a successful bicycle blog." I get this type of question every so often, and never quite know how to respond. For starters, what exactly is a "successful bicycle blog"?... One with a readership of over x visits per day? An average of y comments per post? Placement on "top 50 bicycle blog" lists? Mentions in local publications? Probably all of the above, plus other indicators I am not even aware of.

[EcoVelo - one of my favourite "successful bicycle blogs"]

The next thing that comes to mind when considering the question, is why would one want a "successful bicycle blog" - that is, what do they hope to get out of it? If one's heart fills with desire to write about bicycles, they can simply open their computer and start typing - using free and easy platforms like BlogSpot and WordPress if they wish to make the writing public. The act of turning to an "established blogger" (reader's phraseology) for advice suggests that there is a specific end-goal in mind. I suppose the goal can include sponsorships, effective advocacy, and personal fame... but I think that such a goal-oriented attitude at the start is counterproductive.

[Let's Go Ride a Bike - one of my favourite "successful bicycle blogs"]

The main thing I would suggest, is to start the blog only if you have a genuine interest in the topic - an interest that is sufficiently strong, so that you can imagine producing hundreds of posts, day after day, with the same degree of enthusiasm as your first. Because the most important aspect of a blog's "success," from what I have seen, is its sustainability. Even though it may seem like there are tons of bicycle blogs out there, the number is actually not that great if you narrow it down to those that have been around for at least a year and continuously generate new content on a close-to-daily basis.

I would also consider how much of your time writing a blog would take, and whether that time investment would be worth it for the end-goal you have in mind. I am an unusually fast writer and constantly write anyway as part of my work. A blog entry every one to three days is possible, in terms of both time and effort. Otherwise, I absolutely would not be able to do it.

[The Mixte Gallery - bicycle blog with a unique theme]

Finally, I would suggest considering whether your bicycle blog will be sufficiently unique so as to differentiate it from all the others out there. The uniqueness can be a result of a specific focus (The Mixte Gallery is all about mixtes), of a distinct tone of voice (BikeSnobNYC's comic crankiness), of a consistent visual theme (the women on Copenhagen Cycle Chic), of being a source of cycling news in your area (the regional focus of Boston Biker), or of many other factors - but there must be something that will make the blog stand out in some way.

[BikeSnobNYC - one of my favourite "successful bicycle blogs"]

As for attracting readers, advertisers, sponsors, journalists and what have you... I feel that having this as your goal from the start could very well undermine it. It is my belief that readers can sense it when the ultimate purpose of a piece of writing is marketing-driven, and are less likely to connect with such writing.  I could be wrong, but I think that most "successful bicycle blogs" happened not by design but organically: The writer is so taken with the topic, that they keep writing and writing - until people begin to read. The best thing to do is simply to write and not think about "success" - whatever that may mean to you.

Boon or Bust?

For a comprehensive discussion on the economic, social, and psychological impact of the 2010 World Cup on South Africa and its people, you should consult "Development and Dreams: The Urban Legacy of the 2010 Football World Cup," which is a collection of essays by academics and policy experts on the effects -- good and bad -- of staging the grandest single-sport event on the planet.

You can download it for free at-->

http://www.hsrcpress.ac.za/product.php?productid=2259&freedownload=1

New Zealand's Greatest Ever sporting Victories



In the weekend, New Zealand had one of its greatest
sporting victories ever, when we beat Serbia 1-0 in
a football match. Serbia who are ranked 15th in
football, couldnt match the skill of New Zealand who
are ranked 78th.

It got me thinking, what are the greatest sporting
victories New Zealand and its sport people has ever had.

IMHO, its the following.

1: The New Zealand mens basketball team, making the semi finals of
the world basketball champs in 2002, we werent even suppose to
qualify for the tournament, yet we made the semis. The most
amazing game of basketball I have seen in my life, was when
we played China and we made Yao Ming looked like a amateur.
This had to be the most special time ever in NewZealand sport.

2: New Zealand making the football cup in 1982 for the first time.
We were a team of amateurs, yet we shocked the world making the
cup which only included 24 teams at the time. We also broke
a ton of records along the way. At the world cup itself we even
scored two goals.

3: New Zealand beating Serbia 1-0, how can a team ranked 78th in
the world beat a team 15th. Thru heart, thats how, we probably
played the greatest game of football, any New Zealand team has
played and it lead to a riot by Serbia fans, Smeltz's goal will
surly go down as the greatest New Zealand goal ever.

4: New Zealand making the 2010 world cup. Its been a 28 year
drought but we did it, we played a team of multi millionaires,
who were funded by a Billionaire Prince, which lead to Fallon
and Paston becoming household names in New Zealand forever.

5: 2004 Olympics, New Zealand faced the world champs in
basketball, and won. Serbia and Montenegro couldn't match
our shooting and defense in the last quarter as we came from
behind to win. Bookies wouldnt even take a bet on the game
before the match. Once again our basketballers shocked the
world.

Lets hope there are many other great kiwi moments to come
in the future.

Clip, Clip, Baby!

The intersection between Sports and Bioethics has grown geometrically since I argued on behalf of Eddy Curry that the Chicago Bulls had no right to insist on a DNA test as a condition of his employment. ESPN the Magazine recently devoted almost an entire issue to how genetic research might be changing the future of sports. Now Summer Johnson in Blog.Biothics.net reports on the rather uncomfortable link between March Madness and vasectomies. Apparently, there is a high incidence of men choosing to have this elective surgery during tournament time. What better excuse to sit for twelve hours on the couch than a doctor’s orders to rest with a cold compress between your legs. Indeed, as Summer notes, some doctors at The Oregon Urology Clinic market the procedure with Dick Vitale advising prospective patients to "take care of the equipment and lower your seed for the tourney.” Ouch.

Next year, the NCAA plans to expand the tournament to 68 teams, maybe even to 96, adding perhaps another weekend to the event. We thought originally the motivation was money since that seems to be the driving force behind many of the decisions of the Tsars of amateur athletics. Now we know it’s zero population growth.

Bon Voyage Team USA!

Yesterday, the USA Men's National Team came from behind to score two goals in the second half, defeating Turkey -- 2-1 -- in an international friendly at Philadelphia's Lincoln Financial Field before 55,000+ partisan fans. Today, the team departed for South Africa from Dulles International Airport, and will set up its base camp outside of Pretoria in preparation for its World Cup opener June 12 against England.

Cooperstown Symposium on Baseball and American Culture

The 2010 Cooperstown Symposium on Baseball and American Culture will be held next week, June 2-4, at the National Baseball Hall of Fame in Cooperstown, for those of you who find yourselves in upstate New York. The program is here. I presented here a few years ago and may try to do it again next spring (maybe more on the judge/umpire thing); it is a great time. Because everyone speaks the common language of baseball, the conference is truly multi-disciplined; we all are able to talk to one another. Plus, the last night includes a barbecue and a game of town ball (an early predecessor of what we know as baseball).

Baseball and Law in Chicago

That was a great couple days in Chicago for the Law and Society Association Annual Meeting. I wish I could have stayed an extra day or two, but family calls. Otherwise, I was able to run along the lake, eat Chicago-style pizza, and spend an almost-perfect afternoon at the Place Where God Intended Baseball To Be Played (even if the Cubs lost because, well, they suck).



Our roundtable, Judges as Umpires, Umpires as Judges: Rethinking the Metaphor, went very well. We had a very good audience (particularly considering it was at 8:15 a.m. the first day of the conference) and a good conversation about sports, the nature of rules, and the nature of judging and adjudication. 
I hope we might publish an edited/annotated transcript of the conversation.

But I do need a judge's ruling on this one. At the game on Friday, I saw a number of t-shirts reading "[Opposing Latino player] does my lawn," with an outline of a person in a straw hat pushing a lawnmower. So, for example, I saw a shirt in Cardinals colors that said "Zambrano does my lawn" and one in Cubs colors that said "Ozzie Guillen does my lawn." Is there any way of understanding those shirts that is not obnoxious and insensitive, if not outright offensive?

What's in a Nickname?

South Africa's national rugby team is known as the Springboks (national animal) and its cricket team is referred to as the Proteas (national flower). Meanwhile, the country's national soccer team goes by the nickname "Bafana Bafana" (Zulu for "The Boys"), which aroused some controversy when former President Thabo Mbeki suggested that it was not a fitting name for the national side. Still, the moniker has stuck, and is now synonymous with the men's national team.

Prayers for my Mom


My Mom, Angela Judd, was just diagnosed with breast cancer. Please remember her in your prayers and sacrifices.

Thank you so much. 

From todays Mass reading, Romans 5: 1-5

Affliction produces endurance,

and endurance, proven character,

and proven character, hope,

and hope does not disappoint, 

because the love of God has been poured out into our hearts through the holy Spirit that has been given to us.

God bless you, Lou

New Sports Illustrated Column on NFL Network and Cable Industry

I had the Viewpoint Column on SI.com a few days ago, and my piece centered on the consumer and antitrust implications of the legal and business battles between the NFL and major cable companies. Here's an excerpt:

* * *

Some of these fans can still watch those contests because every NFL Network game that sells out -- and all 32 previous ones were sold out -- is simultaneously broadcast on free, over-the-air TV in the primary market of the home and away teams. But those fans who live in non-primary markets (generally defined as those living outside a 75-mile radius of the team's stadium) are out of luck. Their only option, should it be available to them, would be to switch from a cable provider to a satellite provider that offers NFLN. For a variety of reasons, possibly including convenience, cost and reliability, those fans may prefer to keep their cable provider.

There are about 56.3 million households with NFLN, a significant but underwhelming number when considering that the two-year-old MLB Network already has 55.3 million households, while the three-year old NHL Network, which offers coverage of a considerably less popular league than the NFL, has approximately 34 million. The NFL, of course, would like more homes to have its channel, which the league spent in excess of $100 million developing. But the league has encountered difficulties in convincing cable companies to include NFLN in its channel packages, particularly basic packages. The major holdup has been over price.

* * *

The NFL can offer several responses to those lines of critique. For one, games aired on NFLN are broadcast nationally and thus have a wider viewership than regionally-televised games aired on free, over-the-air networks. The NFL can also highlight that while games aired on NFLN require payment to a cable or satellite provider, they are simultaneously broadcast on free, over-the-air networks (provided the games are sold out) in the home and away teams' primary media markets.

Saturday, May 29, 2010

Maj

Maj månad innehöll 17 träningssessioner.
Därtill tre löprundor.

Såg att denne man (LÄNK) gör en sån sammanställning varje månad och tyckte att det verkade klokt.
17 sessioner säger ju inget om intensitet och så men verkar ändå ok. Ett löp-pass till hade ju vart fint så hade det blivit en gång per vecka (idag kanske?).

Big Ticket for South Africa

Sluggish World Cup ticket sales (about half a million tix are still available) and fewer projected foreign visitors than originally expected (200,000 versus 750,000) will result in a less-than-rosy picture for the organizing committee's bottom line. Combined with the $4.33 billion spent on preparations for the month-long tournament, it will not be surprising if there are some unhappy repercussions on South Africa's economic horizon. Tickets are finally being sold over the counter in the host country, but even the cheapest tickets at around $20 are out of reach for the many South Africans who live in abject poverty. Thus, South Africa's predicament raises the age-old question yet again: whether a country with severe economic and social challenges should bid for the honor -- and back-breaking financial burden -- of hosting such global events. Your thoughts?

South Africa's "National" Sports

While football, baseball and basketball rule in the USA as the most popular spectator sports, South Africa also prides itself as a sport-loving country, but with a very different line up. And this summer, the Rainbow Nation will join the UK as the only other country to have scored a trifecta in hosting the World Cups of rugby (1995), cricket (2003), and soccer (2010).

Snatch & Jerk & Gloves

Oa swing + snatch 16kg: 10/10
Snatch 16kg: 32/32/20/20 (with fleece gloves)

Jerk 2x20kg: 10
Jerk 2x24kg: 10
Jerk 2x26kg: 5, 15
Jerk 2x24kg: 5,30

Clean 2x20kg: 15 (with fleece gloves)

Gloves, I was not happy using my old pair of garden gloves, so I took a pair of thick and cheap fleece gloves. Damn, 32/32 became my max with 16kg and I could not go 10 minutes even with hand switches! A 12kg would be good here.
Went outside and snatched by Sjömanhustrun for the first time this year. A guy with a big beard wanted to sleep there as well. I explained I was doing gloved snatches and that the weight might fly away. He had no problems and promised to sleep around the corner of the statue's base. Wish all people were that easy-going.

After training, forearms feel smoked, but no calluse problem whatsoever. This must also be perfect rehab when you have shoulder issues. Your shoulder is dealing with 16kg but your grip working a lot harder. According to Russian coach Rudnev 16kg with gloves is like 24kg, and 24 kgwith gloves like 32kg (courtesy of my friend Ari's blog, LINK, Ari has just returned from a GS-camp in St Petersburg. This is how I came to think of gloves in the first place).

For ordinary snatch training it is probably a worthwhile complement for grip endurance.

Secret secret gloves.

Low Cost Leisure

With a recession, unemployment, underemployment, and the like, it is hard to get exercise or go have fun when you are on a budget. But even in good times, you shouldn't be spending a bunch of money on high cost activities. The answer is low cost leisure. These activities promise maximum rewards dirt cheap.



1. Running

People think getting in shape requires buying a bunch of shit, becoming a triathlete with $5K worth of gear, joining some expensive gym with a locked in two year contract, or other such horseshit. But to get in phenomenal shape, all you need is a decent pair of shoes. This will cost you about $80. Running attire will cost you another $100. That's it. You go out and run. You can do it in the morning or evening. No one is going to charge your bank account for it. You don't have to find storage space for a bunch of gear. Your gym is always open. And the results are phenomenal. You will lose weight and have improved stamina and fitness. Throw in some push ups and crunches after your run for a total body workout. Plus, if you get bored with running, you can change the scenery. You can hit the trails, run in a park, or defy death by running through gang territory. Running is really cheap. When you see the weekend warriors with their kayaks and mountain bikes on their roof racks, it is neat to realize that all your gear for your sport fits on the backseat of your car. It is also your dirty little secret. People will wonder how you stay so fit with no gym or equipment.



2. Reading

People like to buy a lot of gadgets--big screen TVs, game consoles, iPads, and the like. Naturally, these gadgets also charge for content. And most of it sucks. You have crappy TV shows, crappy games, crappy movies, etc. But the best entertainment you can get comes from reading. Everyone knows the book is better than the movie. And the cost? Free. You can read free books online, check them out free from the public library, buy them used from thrift stores, or curl up at a Barnes and Noble and read it for free off the shelf. Or you can buy the books like I do. This can get expensive, but only if you choose to let it be expensive. Otherwise, you can read for free forever. They publish more books per year than you could ever read in a lifetime. I recommend picking a novelist like Agatha Christie or Ian Fleming and just reading their works all the way through. Finish one author and pick up with another. I have a vast reading list of books which grows faster than I will ever get to them.



3. Chess

Chess is super cheap. You can buy a board and a clock for less than a hundred dollars which is an investment that will last for years. You can play forever. Chess is virtually infinite. It is the most challenging game devised by humanity. You can also play 24-7 thanks to the internet. Or, if you are just a beginner, there are free chess downloads where you can play against the computer. Other games such as billiards, bowling, and golf cost money. You have to pay to play every time. Not with chess. And if you become a grandmaster, this is quite an accomplishment. Plus, unlike poker, you don't lose anything. It improves your concentration, and it is very addictive for those who get into it. Yet, you would be hard pressed to spend more than $500 in a lifetime on this activity. For those not inclined in chess, there are other games like checkers, Scrabble, or what have you with similar financial characteristics.



4. Writing

Creative types like to make things. They like to draw and paint and sculpt or make music or what have you. But all of these activities require equipment, supplies, and materials. The cost can quickly add up. Yet, writing is infinitely creative and costs nothing more than a pencil and a piece of paper. As someone who writes, I can tell you that I have enjoyed this activity for hours, and I have yet to exhaust the projects I am working on. Plus, it is damn cheap. I recommend a pencil, a notebook, and a coffee maker. Just sit down and write. Begin with a journal and write down all the things that happen to you or think about. Write poems, plays, novels, essays, etc. If you write daily like in a diary, it will amaze you how addictive the practice can be. Plus, you can do it anywhere. Even J.K. Rowling living on welfare was able to pen that first Harry Potter book. Now, as a very rich woman, her writing doesn't cost anymore now than it did then.



5. Parks and trails

If you've got kids, keeping them entertained can be a real chore and very expensive. Families often opt to take their kids to pricey amusement parks or the lake or the beach. But I have found that kids have as much fun playing at a city park or traipsing on trails in a state park. These are almost always free or at minimal cost such as $2. Find yourself a place to sit and read or get in a run or what have you. The kids will play until the point of absolute exhaustion. Just be sure to bring water and sandwiches.

You can do a lot on just a little. These 5 activities are virtually inexhaustible and cost almost nothing. Yet, people tend to activities that cost a lot of money, but they are seldom as rewarding as these low cost activities. Running will get you into better shape than mountain biking. Reading is better than watching some high budget movie. Video games are quickly beaten but not chess. Writing is more fun than trying to learn guitar. You spend more time waiting in line at amusement parks than you do playing. But the high dollar activities are more popular because companies sell you on them to make money for themselves. Since there isn't much money in low cost leisure, there is no marketing to go with it. But smart people are immune to marketing. Dumb people are not. This is why dumb people are broke and bored.

The 13 Most Powerful Superfoods


Good nutrition is necessary for all of us but especially the serious athlete. Here are "The Super 13".

Avocados
Apples
Blueberries
Cabbage
Fish and Fish Oil
Mushrooms
Garlic
Almonds
Eggs
Flaxseeds
Pomegranates
Red Wine - 1 drink a day
Dark Chocolate

If you would like more information on the Super 13 click on the link below.

Friday, May 28, 2010

RIP Gary Coleman



Gary Coleman has died at the age of 42 from a Brain Hemorrhage.

He had health problems all his life due to a rare kidney condition.

Gary was best known for his role in different strokes.

As little kid, Different Strokes was one of my favorite progammes,
heck I wanted to be Arnold Jackson, he was the coolest kid on TV
IMHO.

Here's hoping his fans will remembered him for that role.

May he rest in Peace.

Bicycles in the Field

While the Co-Habitant and I have separate dayjobs, we also work together as an artist team. The artwork we make is hard to summarise, but, among other things, it involves photography - usually in far-off, remote locations. The distance to the locations, the remoteness, the amount of photo equipment and props we use, and the need to be on location at a specific time so as to get the right light, make driving the most suitable means of transport to the sites. However, we now have at least two photo-shoots planned that are close to Boston, and the distances to these locations (13-15 miles from home) are reasonably cyclable. Prior to doing the actual photo shoot, we normally take a reconnaissance trip to the location - to take test shots, to get a feel for the light, and to try out background compositions. These trips don't require much equipment, and so we decided to try to do this on our bikes.

It took over an hour to arrive at the photo-shoot location on our roadbikes. While we have cycled that distance many times before, it has always been in a recreational context, never for work. Here are some notes as to how this was different:

It was difficult to focus on creative thoughts with my leg muscles working overtime (hills) in the summer heat. Instead, my focus is mostly on the physical process of cycling and on monitoring traffic conditions.

Also, I realised that when we cycle together we tend to talk about cycling-related matters - a habit that proved difficult to break! When we drive to photo-shoot locations, we use the trip as an opportunity to have in-depth conversations about our work. We did not succeed in doing this while cycling, as the topic of conversation kept shifting to bikes - that is, when it was possible to talk at all.

Upon arriving on location, even after a rest, it was difficult to focus on work. We were in a forest, dissected by foot-paths covered in gnarled tree roots and pine cones. The Co-Habitant got excited at the opportunity to cycle off-road. I became frustrated - both because I was too afraid to do it, and because that wasn't what we were there for. I insisted that we walk the bikes and search for potential scene backdrops instead. He agreed, but I could tell that his spirit yearned for off-road cycling and he wasn't truly able to keep his mind on our project.

Finally, we happened upon a grassy clearing with wildflowers, and now it was my turn to get distracted. I was supposed to be taking test shots of the location, but I could not resist the opportunity to take "bike portraits". Neither could the Co-Habitant. We ended up posing our bicycles amidst the flowers and then cycling around the grassy meadow, just to get it out of our system. Pathetic!

In the end, we did take the test shots we needed, and even came up with plans for the perfect backdrop. But the process took all day, and we repeatedly struggled with staying on task. The lesson? Well, I guess that we have a hard time combining fieldwork with long bike trips, as the latter is not only exhausting, but fosters a cycling-specific atmosphere that is difficult (for us) to break out of.

That is not to say that we are giving up and will take the car on such trips next time. Rather, I am trying to figure out how to prevent the same conflict from happening again. As much as I love bicycles, they are (believe it or not!) not the center of my universe, and my artwork is infinitely more important to me. I would like for cycling to be a tool that will help me with fieldwork, without sucking all the attention away from it. Just need to figure out how exactly to make that happen.

Vale Wynyard Lagan Bay

This morning at 9.15am Nicky and I unlatched the gate to the Rainbow Bridge and sent our darling Lagan across to join his old friends waiting for him on the other side. He will be missed by many people who were lucky enough to share their lives, in part, with such a wonderful horse.

I really have few words to say at this time other than how incredibly blessed I have been to have owned such a super horse for so many years and how grateful I am to have had him in my life. I'm devastated to have lost him so young as I suppose I had counted on having him around for many, many more years but when their time comes, there is nothing we can do other than ensure that they are afforded the love and dignity that they deserve. He died as he lived and he lived well.

Somewhere in time's own space
There must be some sweet pastured place
Where creeks sing on and tall trees grow
Some paradise where horses go,
For by the love that guides my pen
I know great horses live again.
~Stanley Harrison

Misrepresentation of the IPCC CO2 Emission Scenarios

In a correspondence in Nature Geoscience a group of scholars (Manning et al. 2010) take issue with claims made by the Global Carbon Project that has fed into oft-repeated claims that global emissions are increasing above the highest of IPCC scenarios. For instance, in 2008 the GCP issued a press release that claimed:
Emissions growth for 2000-2007 was above even the most fossil fuel intensive scenario of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (SRES-IPCC).
This perspective has been echoed by activists, such as Joe Romm, who wrote the following in Nature Reports Climate Change:
Carbon emissions from the global consumption of fossil fuels are currently above 8 GtC per year and rising faster than the most pessimistic economic model considered by the IPCC
The problem with such statements is that they are wrong. (To defend GCP a bit, their presentation has become a bit more nuanced in more recent years, but still not quite correct.) Manning et al. explain the problem that they seek to correct:
Fossil fuel CO2 emissions have increased significantly. However, contrary to some statements in recent publications1–3, current emissions are not higher than covered in the climate change scenarios used by the last two Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessments4,5. And although emissions were recently near the top of the range that has been covered6, the changes in atmospheric CO2 concentration follow long-term average emissions rather than short-term variations.
The problem lies in a technical distinction between scenario averages (the mean across a family of scenarios) and scenario markers (a representative scenario from a family). Manning et al. expalin:
We therefore take issue with the comparison8,9 of the estimated evolution of industrial CO2 emissions since 1990 with subgroup averages of the SRES scenarios, rather than with the illustrative scenarios. These comparisons can be misleading over the next few decades because the upper boundary of the range covered by subgroup average emissions is significantly lower than the upper boundary of the range of illustrative scenarios. As a result, the comparisons with subgroup averages have led others1–3,10 to incorrectly conclude that current emissions are higher than the values used in climate change projections. This may be spreading into general reviews of climate change science11,12, causing a growing inconsistency between the modelling work that has been done for the IPCC and its broader interpretation.
The figure at the top of this post is from the Manning et al. paper.

Interestingly, I wrote an email to the GCP in November, 2007 as part of a discussion on this exact issue, making essentially the same points. Here are some excerpts from what I sent to GCP:
The IPCC SRES has 40 scenarios from four "families" of emissions. The emissions profiles for fossil fuel and industry for these 40 are provided here:

http://www.grida.no/climate/ipcc/emission/5-2.htm

Looking across the 40 SRES scenario projections for 2010 fossil fuel and industry CO2 emissions shows a range of 7.25 to 10.32 GtC, equating to annual growth rates of .05% to 3.95% per year. If the 2000-2006 observed growth rate is 3.3% per year wouldn't this suggest that figure 7 in the November 15 GCP_CarbonCycleUpdate is fairly misleading, and in fact incorrect when it states:
"Current emissions are tracking above the most intense fossil fuel emission scenario established by the IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios-SRES (2000)"?
For its part the IPCC SRES report notes, "The wide ranges of energy and industry-related CO2 emissions in the SRES scenarios reflect the fact that the "best" or the "most likely" quantifications are nearly impossible to identify." Would it not be accurate to say instead that current emissions remain within the envelope of estimates provided by the IPCC in 2000, but in the top 12.5% of scenarios (there are 5 of 40 at a growth rate of 3.3%/year and higher for 2000-2010)? . . .

I think that taking either the marker or the average of the SRES scenario families is far less robust than simply presenting the envelope of projections in the entire 40 scenarios. The IPCC itself urges great caution in aggregating scenarios, and goes to great length to advise that there is no basis for assign probabilities to any of them (hence, no basis for averaging).

So I would urge some greater caution in how you present the recent trends than I observe in your powerpoint. They are surprising and very significant, but they are not outside the IPCC SRES envelope (though perhaps outside your own simpliifcation of that envelope). Your message is far too important to risk being caught up in such a silly point.
The fact that emissions have been running at the top half of the SRES range, and above most of the marker scenarios is troubling enough, for reasons that we explained in Nature in 2008 (Pielke et al. 2008, PDF). There is no need to misrepresent the science to claim that things are worse than we thought. The are already worse than we thought without the misrepresentation.

Kudos to Manning et al. for helping to set the record straight.

Offshore Drilling Realities

Earlier this week, Senator John Kerry (D-MA) dresses down someone (who, I wonder?) for apparently showing a lack of understanding of the realities of oil exploration in the Gulf of Mexico:
Now we are not going to stop drilling in the Gulf tomorrow, folks. Let’s be realistic. There are 48,000 wells out there. One of them went sour. About 30 percent of our transportation fuel comes from the Gulf. You think Americans are going to suddenly stop driving to work tomorrow? Do you think people are going to stop driving the trucks to deliver the goods to the department stores? Not going to happen.
Today's FT Lex Column offers some additional realities:

US regulations could become so onerous that offshore activity dries up in North America, but this would boost the appeal of fields off West Africa, Brazil and in the Barents Sea. And, though it seems callous with crude still fouling the Gulf, keeping North American offshore drilling viable may pose less environmental risk than other options. Incremental barrels would come from abroad by tankers statistically more likely to spill, or from ecologically damaging oil sands, today’s marginal supplier.

The economic attractions of offshore drilling are just too compelling for the industry to be spooked even by BP’s debacle. Oilmen will go where the oil is, however painful their burns.

It speaks to the perverse counter-intuitive nature of energy and climate policies that the best-intentioned actions -- strengthening US drilling regulations, could lead to greater environmental risks and do nothing to address carbon dioxide emissions. Policy design desperately needs to catch up with real-world complexities.

Gotta Get Rand!

The South African currency is called the rand (abbreviated "R" or "ZAR") and is currently trading at $1 = 7.59 ZAR (or 1 ZAR = .13). As you can see, the colorful bills come in denominations of 10, 20, 50, 100, and 200 rand.

A Father to the Fatherless?

By Chris Willertz, Winton Woods Wrestling, OH
There was a time when coaching a sport was all about coaching a sport.  Teaching specific sport skills, emphasizing teamwork, having fun and enjoying young people were the prime elements of the life of a youth coach.  As so many of us realize, coaching is so much more now.  The emphasis on winning, developing talent, getting kids into college or the best schools has become the priority; like what your  sports involvement can do for you! 
At Winton Woods, our wrestling program is about all of the things mentioned above, in various degrees.  But, I would argue, our program is most about trying to train boys into men.  Sadly, we have a lot of absentee fathers in our community.  There are many single mothers trying to raise children and make ends meet.  I think God asks everyone of us to father our own children but to help the orphans and the widows as well.  Since this is the majority of our boys at Winton Woods, I feel it would be an injustice NOT to try to father our fatherless.
Fathering the fatherless is hard work!  This is true especially in the spring when school is about to let out.  If you’ve ever really tried to train teenage boys you know what I mean.  So many want an adult fighting for them and against them!  So many crave the attention and the discipline.  
Don’t throw up your arms and say I can’t do it.  Get smart.  Use your brain, your wisdom.  Figure out rewards for good behavior, figure out consequences for bad behavior, expect to fight the same fight over homework, effort, respect, day after day after day after day.  
I can’t remember the number of times my dad told me to do my homework and the punishments I received for not doing it.  But he did it for me and my older brother, and countless students he taught at Saginaw Valley State University. Convince yourself that you can do it too and that you are not going to give up.
Our work at Winton Woods is difficult.  I see forty or fifty teenage boys a day that need fathering.  And I am supposed to teach them history and wrestling too!?  It’s a daunting task.  I can’t do it by myself.  We can’t do it by ourselves.  We need you!  We need you to pray for us.  We need you to help us financially (so many of the boys don’t experience real initiations provided by their own families, we have to provide them for them).  
We need you to father fatherless teenage boys.  We need you to tell friends and family about the plight so many boys are facing, NO INITIATIONS INTO MANHOOD BY ADULTS WHO REALLY CARE ABOUT THEM!  We need our society to see how weak uninitiated men are harmful to the women they love, the children they create, the communities which they live and ultimately to themselves.
It is clear God wants all of us to do our part, to help Him.  Are you willing to do your part, to fight for the soul of a young person?  Christ did it for you, why not return the favor?
“For the Lord your God is God of gods and Lord of lords, the great God, mighty and awesome, who shows no partiality and accepts no bribes.  He defends the cause of the fatherless and the widow, and loves the alien, giving him food and clothing.”
Deuteronomy 10: 17-19
“Do not deprive the alien or the fatherless of justice.”
Deuteronomy 24: 17
“Do not withhold discipline from a child.”
Proverbs 23: 13

Thursday, May 27, 2010

Recurring Themes

I have been keeping this blog for five years now. I've experienced a lot during that time, and my thinking has evolved a bit. But I've noticed that I keep coming back to the same themes again and again. So, here's a list of those themes.

1. Happiness comes from work.

If anyone wants the secret to happiness, it is right in front of you. Work. That's it. Just make yourself busy. Stop navel gazing. Stop ruminating. Just immerse yourself in your work. Put together a list of all the things you want to do in life and throw yourself into accomplishing them. This will make you happy.

2. There is no God.

God does not exist. I know this because there is no evidence for his existence. Changing my mind requires that you produce evidence. You will never have that evidence. Enjoy your delusion.

3. Government is evil.

Government is always a negation of freedom. Always. It consumes your wealth, curtails your liberty, and takes innocent life. Government must be limited.

4. Love is bullshit.

Love is nature's trick to make you reproduce. Most people cheat. Women marry for money. Between love and lust, stick with lust. Fuck them and forget them.

5. Extraordinary success is the product of luck.

Everyone wants to be rich and famous. In striving to be rich and famous, these people end up poor and unknown. This is because it is dumb luck that makes people rich and famous. Ordinary success is the product of work. This is being responsible and respected. No one cares about responsibility and respect. They all want to be Paris Hilton.

6. Blue collar work is real work.

White collar work is bullshit. It is mostly politics and wasting time and trying to get over on others. Blue collar work is authentic. It is tangible and real. It makes the world better. It is honest. It brings satisfaction and happiness.

7. Minimalism is superior to consumerism.

You need very little to be happy and enjoy your life. More stuff does not yield more happiness. Less stuff yields more freedom. Simple living is sustainable living. You live within your means. You check out of the status game. You have more money and less baggage.

Those are my recurring themes. I will visit them again. I may discover some new ones as well.

Academic Rigor, Anyone?

To disabuse readers of any notion that "Seminar Abroad 2010: FIFA World Cup/South Africa" is anywhere near a gut course, one need only know that the students -- under the tutelage of Dr. Dan Covell -- were required to read three books*, write two response papers, research and present on a course-related topic, submit a post-trip assessment of findings, and actively participate in in-country events and activities. Happily, most of the assignments were completed in the spring, which provided students with a fuller appreciation of the social, political, and economic dynamics of international soccer and modern-day South Africa.

*Playing the Enemy: Nelson Mandela and the Game that Made a Nation, by John Carlin; Franklin Foer's How Soccer Explains the World; and A History of South Africa, by Leonard Thompson.

Whatchoo talkin 'bout



Gary in better times.

Here's hoping for a full recovery.

UVA Tells Cuccinelli to Show His Cards

The University of Virgina has petitioned a court to set aside the request of Virginia Attorney General Kenneth Cuccinelli to Michael Mann, a former professor at UVA, for disclosure of a large amount of material related to his research while a faculty member by invoking a statute focused on rooting out fraud in the use of public funds.

The petition (here in PDF) basically calls Cuccinelli's bluff. I wrote about this earlier this month, arguing that "I'm no lawyer, but the chances of Mann being found guilty of violating this statute are precisely zero." The petition explains that Cuccinelli's request fails on both procedural and substantive grounds - the two Aces in the hole.

However, since this is a public relations stunt by the Attorney General, he could still win in the court of public opinion, even if the petition were to be granted on procedural grounds, by showing evidence of the fraudulent use of taxpayer money by Mann. On the other hand, if he cannot show such substance, he will be the one that looks like a fraud on a fishing expedition. As I wrote this month, I don't think that the AG has the evidence, because there is no such evidence to have.

What about Michael Mann and climate science? As I wrote earlier this month:
The worst that can be said about Mann is that he may have done sloppy research using poor methods that won't stand the test of time, and when challenged he tends to act petulant and nasty. Let's just accept this as true for the purposes of discussion. OK, so what? None of this rises to scientific misconduct or fraud, not even close, and no one has even made such a case, despite the ample noise in the blogosphere.
If this plays out as I anticipate, with the petition granted and the AG coming up with nothing, then Mann and his supporters would do well not to confuse this legal victory with evidence for scientific accuracy and integrity -- a conflation that has been too often made in the aftermath of the recent UK reviews of the UEA situation, which simply adds to the partisan flames.

Mann's opponents will continue to shout "fraud" but until they can match the talk with evidence, they should probably stay silent. If Mann is confident that his files show no wrongdoing, he might consider just releasing them after the petition is granted as a gesture of his confidence. I doubt that would happen, but it would be quite powerful if it was done by choice, not by coercion.

However, after this episode is over, I expect fault lines to remain pretty much as they were before and the battle will simply shift to new turf in the never-ending climate wars.

Lagan

This morning his temperature is at 40.4 and his nose is bleeding again. Tomorrow we start him on oral antibiotics. He is still standing and eating although his appetite has diminished somewhat. He seems happy to see me when I visit and definitely loves his carrots but I am finding it incredibly hard watching him deteriorate. I've ridden this roller coaster before and I really hate the ride. I know that I can't give up on him yet as we could still win this but the longer it goes on and the worse he gets, little by little, the more I have to question if he is suffering more than is acceptable. My vet thinks we should keep going so keep going we will ...

Lccj

Lccj 2x24kg: 5, 5x 15 reps

Farmer's walks and manual work throughout the day so this was what my grip could take today.

New Sports Illustrated Column on Implications of Floyd Landis' Allegations against Lance Armstrong

I have a new column on SI.com on the potential legal impact of allegations by Floyd Landis that Lance Armstrong engaged in doping and possibly encouraged and facilitated other riders to dope. Here's an excerpt:

Why would law enforcement authorities listen to someone of questionable character like Landis?

For one, Landis would be breaking the law by knowingly lying to federal government officials.

Second, sometimes persons with checkered pasts and suspicious motivations are telling the truth and sometimes they are the only persons willing to tell the truth. Just recall when Jose Canseco was widely ridiculed for claims in his book, Juiced Wild Times, Rampant 'Roids, Smash Hits, and How Baseball Got Big, that Mark McGwire, Jason Giambi and other players used steroids. While Canseco's colorful past and financial motivations for book sales gave legitimate reason to question the accusations, he appears to have been telling the truth. Perhaps if he had been taken more seriously earlier in time, the steroid scandal could have been addressed more effectively.

In addition, it is the job of law enforcement and other investigatory officials, including special agent Jeff Novitzky, to assess the credibility of Landis and how well his claims would withstand courtroom scrutiny. Clearly, if Landis is the central accuser of Armstrong, Armstrong could attack Landis on multiple grounds. But should the government conclude that Armstrong broke the law, it will try to find additional sources of evidence and testimony that support Landis's claims but lack his vulnerabilities.

* * *

What is the legal significance of USPS sponsoring Armstrong's team?

In all likelihood, the sponsorship by USPS, an independent agency within the Executive Branch of the federal government, will not impact the legal duties of Armstrong or the team. Sponsorship of a racing team probably does not convert the team into an entity that acts on behalf of the government, nor is it likely to turn decision-makers of the team into government agents. Therefore, even though Armstrong was a part-owner and principal decision-maker for Tailwind Sports, which managed the USPS team and received the sponsorship money, his main legal concerns probably center on accusations of illegal distribution.

It is worth noting, however, the possibility that Armstrong's treatment of USPS sponsorship money could bring legal scrutiny, particularly under the federal statute for the misuse of public funds and embezzlement, 18 U.S.C. §§ 648. The statute prohibits custodians of public funds from misusing those funds and carries up to a 10-year prison sentence. The fact that USPS does not draw from taxpayer funds may not help Armstrong, since the statute does not distinguish taxpayer public funds from non-taxpayer public funds.

Still, whether Armstrong's individual control of the funds would be sufficient to trigger scrutiny, and whether promotional public funds fall within the purview of the statute are complicating factors. At this stage, therefore, it seems unlikely that the USPS sponsorship will impact the legal analysis.

To read the rest, click here. For an excellent commentary by Alan Milstein on Landis' allegations, see On Floyd Landis: What Makes Sports and Sports Law Interesting.

The Significance of Climate Model Agreement: A Guest Post by Ryan Meyer



Ryan Meyer is a PhD student at ASU's School of Life Sciences where he is writing a dissertation about US federal climate science research and its relationship to policy making. He is spending a yer in Australia on a Fulbright and he blogs at Adapt Already.

If four out of five global climate models (GCMs) agree on a result, should we feel more confident about that result? Does agreement among models constitute increased certainty about the models’ basis in reality? My colleagues and I wondered about this a few years ago when we started noticing that many climate scientists seem to adopt this logic without any explanation or justification. They claim, for example, that we should be more worried about drought in the southwestern US because 18 out of 19 models predict a transition to a more arid climate over the next 50 years. Or they pick a subset of models to represent a particular process such as the Asian monsoon, and then point to agreement among those models as significant.

If 18 models get the same result, is that better than just one? Why? Climate science should provide a thorough explanation for this, especially if climate models are to begin informing policy decisions.

We argue in a paper now available in Environmental Science and Policy (PDF here) that agreement is only significant if the models are sufficiently independent from one another. The climate science community has mostly ignored the crucial problem of model independence while taking advantage of a tacit belief in the force of model agreement. To quote from our introduction:
GCMs are commonly treated as independent from one another, when in fact there are many reasons to believe otherwise. The assumption of independence leads to increased confidence in the ‘‘robustness’’ of model results when multiple models agree. But GCM independence has not been evaluated by model builders and others in the climate science community. Until now the climate science literature has given only passing attention to this problem, and the field has not developed systematic approaches for assessing model independence.
To some these arguments may seem like nitpicking. Or they might seem better suited to the pages of some technical journal where modelers work these things out for themselves. But we strongly believe that this extends beyond methodology, and is in fact a policy question. It relates to the kind of investments we can and should be making in climate science.

The question of independence is one small piece of a much needed broad discussion about climate science policy. What kinds of knowledge are most helpful in crafting a response to climate change? What institutions, disciplines, and tools are best suited to deliver such knowledge? Such crucial questions of science policy tend to be ignored. We argue about what "the science" says, rather than how it works and how it could work better for the needs of decision makers.

In our paper, we take it as a given that governments will continue to fund large and complex models of the climate and related systems. (A broader discussion about the merits of this investment is important, but we do not directly address it). But how should they be funded? Who should decide the most important questions to pursue? In the past, we have tended to let climate scientists sort that one out. They are, after all, the experts. But they are certainly not unbiased participants in this discussion. Are they asking the most important questions, or just the ones they find most interesting?

It is important to recognize that there are many possible trajectories for our climate science knowledge. We may not know exactly where each one leads, but we can still make wise, informed choices. This is why the independence problem is important, not just for climate modelers, but for science policy makers, potential users of climate science, and advocates for climate change adaptation.

We have three basic recommendations related to the independence problem:
  1. Climate modelers should be wary of overselling results based on model agreement.

  2. The climate science community should begin to better address the independence problem.

  3. Science policy decision makers should take this problem into account when building strategies for climate modeling, and climate science more broadly.

Political Realities

Yesterday, I discussed a proposal from the European Commission to increase the unilateral target for the bloc's emissions reductions to 30% from 20% by 2020. Since the proposal involves costs measured in the hundreds of billions of Euros (of which the exact amount seems to be reported differently), I argued yesterday that it is not going to happen.

EurActiv reports today that Connie Hedegaard, the EU's Climate Action Commissioner and person responsible for the proposal, has stepped back:
Are the conditions right now? Would it make sense at this moment? My answer would be 'no'
These comments raise the question of when it would be appropriate to increase costs to European businesses. Certainly no time soon, maybe never.

The point here is not about Europeans specifically, who have certainly shown the most leadership on climate policies over recent decades, but about a general principle of policy design: People are willing to accept some costs for decarbonization policies, but this willingness has limits, even in Europe. In this regard, Europeans, North Americans, Asians and everyone else are much the same. This is an argument discussed in some depth in The Climate Fix. There is no point is complaining about this reality -- and little point in trying to change it -- rather, it needs to be accepted as a boundary condition for climate policy design.