Amir Johnson and NBA Players who Skipped College

John Infante, a law review student at Indiana University School of Law, e-mails me a great point about Amir Johnson, the last high school player selected in an NBA draft (Johnson was drafted by the Detroit Pistons in the second round, 56th overall, of the 2005 NBA Draft; the NBA and NBPA then collectively-bargained that, beginning with the 2006 NBA Draft, players must be at least 19 years old on December 31 of the year of the NBA draft and that at least one NBA season has passed from when they graduated from high school, or when they would have graduated from high school, and the NBA draft.):

Prof. McCann,

I know this is a topic you're very passionate on, so I thought I would pass on this little tidbit. Amir Johnson holds the distinction of being the last high school player drafted, assuming the age limit isn't going anywhere. He was drafted 56th overall by the Detroit Pistons in 2005. Had he attended Louisville, where he signed an letter of intent, and come out this year, he would have been a consensus lottery pick, and possibly a clear 3rd overall behind Oden and Durant.

Yesterday, Amir signed a 3-year, $11 million guaranteed contract with Pistons. Coincidentally, that's about what a top 5 pick makes during his rookie contract. But instead of spending two years playing for free in college, Amir has pulled in over $1 million in salary over the last two years, been able to focus exclusively on his game, gotten instruction from NBA coaches and one of the best strength and conditioning coaches in sports, Arnie Kander, and gotten more acclimated to the NBA lifestyle (although most of his time was spent with the Sioux Falls Skyforce of the NBDL).

I know you are fond of saying the reality is that for every Korleone Young, there are two Kobe Bryants. Look like Amir might be ready to start the path to being compared to the later, rather than the former.

John
--
John Infante
Indiana University School of Law
Indiana Law Journal
Indiana University Division of Recreational Sports

Excellent analysis by John, who has much more on his blog, Taco John. In addition, and as I empirically examine in my law review article on high school players and the NBA Draft and other work, high school players in the NBA average more points, rebounds, and assists than the average NBA player or the average player of any age group within the NBA. Those numbers not only reflect the play of superstars like Lebron James, Tracy McGrady, Kevin Garnett, Kobe Bryant, and Amare Stoudemire, but also very good (if not great) players like Al Jefferson, Jermaine O'Neal, Rashard Lewis, Al Harrington, Eddy Curry, Dwight Howard, Tyson Chandler, Monta Ellis, and Josh Smith, as well as productive role players like DeSagana Diop, DeShawn Stevenson, and Kendrick Perkins.

High school players who made themselves eligible for the draft were also far more likely to be drafted, and to be drafted in the first round, than college underclassmen or college seniors (my favorite response to that is "but they are a small sample size!" -- well that's the whole point. Only 36 made themselves eligible for the draft from 1995 to 2004--30 of whom were drafted--indicating that they only tended to do it when it made sense). They are also one of the least likely cohorts to get in trouble with the law.

It's also commonly assumed that high school players struggle in their first NBA season; unfortunately for the NBA, that's true of most rookies. Moreover, think about all of the college juniors and seniors who were drafted high but ended up playing poorly in the NBA. Rafael Araujo, Trajan Langdon, Ed O'Bannon, Mateen Cleaves, Kirk Haston, Brandon Armstrong, Marcus Fizer, Dahntay Jones, Marcus Haislip, Reece Gaines, Mike Sweetney, Luke Jackson -- this list could go on and on and on. These players were twenty-one- or twenty-two-years-old when they entered the NBA. They had played three or four years of college basketball where they had excelled. They had attracted the keen interest of NBA scouts. And yet they proceeded to flop or disappoint in the NBA. Would an arbitrary age floor of nineteen- or twenty-years-old have stopped any of them from being drafted? Nope. Too bad the NBA couldn't create a rule that protects teams from drafting these guys.

Also highlighting John's remarks above, high school seniors who declared for the draft positioned themselves for free agency at earlier ages in their NBA careers (look at what it did for 27-year-old Rashard Lewis and his recently signed 6-year, $126 million contract with the Orlando Magic, which followed a 7-year, $60 million contract that he signed at age 23 with the Seattle Supersonics (he opted out of its last two years), and for Kevin Garnett, who, when all is said and done, may end up earning over $300 million as an NBA player). No, money isn't everything, but it seems to matter a lot in this country, and I suspect it would matter a lot to us if we were potential NBA players, especially when we would always be one basketball injury away from pursuing the kinds of jobs we actually have.

Of course, the bigger point isn't that players should skip college, it's that they should have that option, just like the one enjoyed by baseball players, hockey players, tennis players, boxers, actors (see this week's People Magazine cover story), musicians . . . the list goes on, except it doesn't include, for one reason or another, basketball and football players. And that brings to mind a legal question: should veteran players, who seemingly have a stake in preserving jobs for themselves and other veterans, be able to collectively-bargain away the employment rights of players not yet in the league and who have no seat at the bargaining table? I know veterans have that capacity, but should they? Why or why not?

Posted in: