Sam Harris on the Future of the Book

Where publishing is concerned, the Internet is both midwife and executioner. It has never been easier to reach large numbers of readers, but these readers have never felt more entitled to be informed and entertained for free. I have been very slow to appreciate these developments, and yet it is clear even to me that there are reasons to fear for the life of the printed book. Needless to say, many of the changes occurring in publishing are changes that neither publishers nor authors want. The market for books is continually shifting beneath our feet, and nobody knows what the business of publishing will look like a decade from now.

The Future of the Book

This is a brilliant essay and a rumination on what the future of publishing will be. Like it or not, that future is digital. Is the book dead?

Right now, I am writing a book. I could just as easily post the chapters as blog posts, and I think about that as I write them. But they don't work as blog posts. The chapters cannot stand alone. They are like bricks in a structure which would make no sense on their own but make sense in the context of the book. The chapters build on the previous chapters. If you only got one, it would feel incomplete, and you would feel cheated.

Sam Harris is pondering how authors can get paid in this new digital landscape. I think he is asking the wrong question. Bloggers like Seth Godin, Tim Ferriss, and Leo Babauta manage to get paid. They aren't rich like a Stephen King, but they show you can make a living from writing. The internet has actually made things more accessible to writers that would otherwise have no shot. The question is not how writers will get paid. The question is how big shot writers along the lines of Stephen King and J.K. Rowling can continue to be rich. The answer is that they won't. Rock stars are the first major casualty of this revolution. Big time writers are right behind them.

The reason that all these creative types became rich is because of intellectual property laws. Copyright enabled someone other than the creator to own the work, publish it, and distribute it. Publishers and record companies were notorious in their dealings with talent. Then, their competitive advantage vanished with the internet. The IP cartel was broken.

The upside of this new order is that creative types have the means of distribution and production in their hands. The downside is that there is little chance of them getting paid for it. Just yesterday, I had an online conversation with an aspiring novelist wanting to be widely read but also get paid for it. I told him that he could not have both. If success is measured in eyeballs, it is very easy to become a successful writer. If success is measured in money, it isn't going to happen.

Joseph Schumpeter called this process "creative destruction." New orders in the marketplace displace the old orders. This is why I tell people that the future is not online in terms of making money but in the physical realm. People who produce food, build structures, maintain cars, and all the rest are the ones who are going to command premium pay. Why is this? Because no one wants to do this work anymore. I know because I see it now. This is why jet mechanics now command higher pay than jet pilots. No one wants to turn those wrenches. The pay has increased to try and attract people into these unglamorous but necessary careers.

The difference between blue collar work and the work of the mind is that blue collar work is not scalable while intellectual work is. Under an IP regime, scalable creative work can make you rich as fuck. This is because you can spend a year writing a novel like The Stand and then sit on your ass collecting royalties for that year of work for the rest of your life. But when you are a rock star getting decimated by online piracy, you get your old ass up and start touring and selling tickets to shows. There is a reason all these geezers are out there on the road, and it isn't personal enjoyment. They need the money. Hell, many of these rockers hate each other's guts, but they put up with each other to make a buck. Welcome to the real world of work, motherfuckers.

All intellectual work depends on protectionism for its income. It could be a license for a doctor or a lawyer or an engineer. It could be copyright for a writer or a patent for an inventor. But the real moat for these castles came from the cost of distribution and production. That marginal cost is now virtually zero. In the long run, there is no protection for intellectual property. It is eroding. Publishers are the next to die followed by universities and movie studios.

What is the future for the workers of the mind? The answer to that is they will have to go back to their day jobs. Guys like Sam Harris are going to have to get a job in a restaurant working the grill. I already see this with rock stars. They can drive a bus and listen to music, or they can ride in a bus and play the music each night. But the pay won't be that much different. The tragedy is not a cost to culture but the erosion of personal fortunes. I think that is wonderful. This is the way it should be.

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