Sunday, January 10, 2010

Is Malcolm Gladwell Full of Shit?



Yes.

I have read two of Gladwell's books and countless other articles, and I have reduced his tactics to these common denominators:

-Take a topic people are keenly interested in usually culminating in making a ton of money.

-Posit a "rule" for the phenomenon.

-Use cherry picked anecodotes as "evidence."

-Be slippery on committing to a philosophy, a strategy, viewpoint, etc.

It pains me to report that Gladwell is full of shit considering that I have tended to be favorable towards his writings. But I turn my skeptical spotlight on everything including people I might happen to like. In Gladwell's case, he is dying under the scrutiny. He is a charlatan.

The reason Gladwell is so popular is because he plays on people's desire for success. In The Tipping Point, Gladwell tries to explain mass popularity and trends which if you understood perfectly would make you insanely rich. In Blink, Gladwell tries to explain intuition which will give you an edge in figuring out things especially in predicting the future which will make you insanely rich. In Outliers, Gladwell tries to explain personal success which if you figure out will make you insanely rich like Bill Gates. Yet, after reading all this shit, you are left exactly where you were when you started--clueless.

Gladwell deals with randomness which is a subject near and dear to my heart, but he tries to give answers to things that can't be answered. Yes, Bill Gates worked 10,000 hours on being a programmer. So, what? I know I've spent 10,000 hours on being a writer, and I am still a failure as a writer. Like it or not, it boils down to luck. That is a hard lesson for people to hear, but there it is. I recommend that people read Taleb instead who offers no explanation for these things whatsoever.

Gladwell is simply a bullshitter. He does the same thing Tony Robbins and countless other gurus do except he gives a patina of respectability to it all by writing for The New Yorker and referencing scientific research. But he plays both sides of an issue. In Outliers, you can say success boils down to external circumstances or working your ass off. Or maybe it is both. Or maybe it is neither. Or maybe Bill Gates was just lucky to have a contact at IBM.

Everyone wants to be successful. I think effort counts for something, but to be hugely successful requires luck. That is the bottom line. These things are beyond your control. My advice is to diminish your expectations, don't envy lucky people, and find happiness in your work. Gladwell tries to explain the unexplainable. He delivers hindsight bias which does nothing for you going forward. The man is full of shit. One day, they will write a book explaining how he was able to pull off the trick.

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