Random Thoughts on Various Subjects

1. ASSANGE/WIKILEAKS

Assange gets out of jail to go to mansion arrest. Freedom for him is having internet access.

This saga has highlighted something very important to me. The American public itself is the cause of tyranny. It does not amaze me that political leaders would hate Assange and want him tortured, tried, incarcerated, castrated, assassinated, etc. What does amaze me is the antipathy of the American public towards this one man and what he has done, and their willingness to treat the First Amendment as merely a suggestion. The fact is that Assange has shown more through his ill treatment than he ever did through his leaks.

It is my belief that our leaders and institutions are not what needs changing but the mindset of the American public. Not all libertarians will agree with me, but I think governments are directly tied to the will of the people and reflect that will. Minority opinions like my own may receive airing and even seem fashionable. But the weight of mass stupidity is what carries the day. Assange tried to educate and enlighten the public, and the public has responded with "no, thanks." They like being in the dark.

2. RON PAUL 2012

Should Ron Paul run for president again? The last run was definitely a good thing because it brought attention to Paul and the things he believes in. I think his run was instrumental in sparking the Tea Party and bringing public attention to the war and the Fed. Running again would definitely be an additional boost. There is only one problem. That is Gary Johnson.

Gary Johnson is also a great libertarian candidate with executive experience. He would make an outstanding president. The problem is that I can't vote for both men. I must pick one. And Gary Johnson is definitely running for president. Ron Paul likes Gary Johnson.

I think Dr. Paul should sit this one out. I know his wife isn't too keen on another run, and Paul is long in the tooth. I think his endorsement of Gary Johnson would be a better way to go. This would be a disappointment to many of Dr. Paul's admirers, but Ron Paul has done more for liberty than any other candidate I can think of. Others are following in his footsteps like his son, Rand.

I am already leaning towards Johnson. It would be great if Paul passed the baton. Johnson has broader appeal and is more electable. Another run for Paul might elevate Paul's stature another notch, but a run for Johnson has the potential of changing the country. I will wait and see what happens.

3. PLATFORMS

I have a blog, a Facebook account, and a Twitter account. I am not alone in this since other writers have the same thing going on. But there is one thing I do differently. I don't cross post. Basically, a blogger will post something to their blog and then post links on their Twitter pages and Facebook pages. This is creative redundancy, and I don't like it. So, I don't cross post. This means, Gentle Reader, that I have more original material in other places. I don't believe in using Facebook and Twitter as marketing tools but as unique platforms and outlets for original material. This means I have to work more on creating content, but this is a good thing.

4. GOLD

I believe gold, precious metals, and other commodities should be a part of any person's investment portfolio. But there needs to be caution here as well. Commodities can be prone to bubbles as well. Housing is essentially a commodity, and we know what happened there. People moved to real estate as a response to the dot-com bubble. It made sense at the time, but what makes sense now often looks incredibly stupid in the future.

My advice remains the same. Diversify your holdings. This is the best and smartest strategy you can take in a world of uncertainty. I value the opinions of people like Peter Schiff and Nassim Taleb who offer their perspectives on hedging risk. Both men offer totally different strategies, and they are both problematic. Taleb finds safety by having 80% of his cash in Treasuries. Now, that strategy is looking stupid as inflation will almost certainly erode his holdings. Likewise, if inflation isn't as high as expected, you can expect gold prices to crater.

It always comes back to the advice that goes back to the Babylonians. Spread your bets. Don't put all your eggs in one basket. Negative covariance works as evidenced by the Harry Browne Permanent Portfolio. There are many ways to diversify, so I don't want to say this is the best and only way to go. But I can say that I eschew any investment advice that tells me to concentrate my assets for higher returns. That almost always turns out to be bad advice.

It has been my experience that people with a lot of money acquired it almost completely from taking large risks, and it is their destiny to give it all back. This is the lottery winner who blows it all and ends up broke in three years. This is the doctor who labored mightily for years to end up making stockbrokers rich. This is the billionaire who merges his business with a media empire and then watches as his wealth is cut in half. This is called "reversion to the mean," and lucky fools have no fucking clue what it is. This is why the casino is the ultimate winner while the high stakes player finds himself escorted off the property when his last chip is wagered and lost.

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