The Power of Situation: Joakim Noah's Decision to Stay at Florida

After leading the Florida Gators to an NCAA title, many thought that sophomore Joakim Noah would declare for the 2006 NBA Draft. A number of draft experts, including Aran Smith of NBA Draft Net and Chad Ford of ESPN (and Brigham Young University-Hawaii) predicted that Noah would be the first or second player selected, especially given the unusual absence of premiere talent in this year’s draft. In contrast, because of what appears to be deeper class in the 2007 NBA Draft, Noah might struggle to be a top 10 pick next year. And keep in mind, the economic difference between being the first pick in 2006 and the 11th pick in 2007 is the difference between a guaranteed, three-year contract worth $14.4 million and one worth about $6.2 million, plus the difference between being one year closer to NBA free agency and one year farther away.

But Noah passed up what would likely be a top two selection in this June’s draft to stay at Florida. And by doing so, he received the predictable praise from those who advocate that players stay in school: by staying an extra year in college, Noah will better develop his game and position himself for another championship. He also appears loyal to his school at a time when stars are leaving as early as possible, a phenomenon which some believe is attributable to the greed and immaturity of young basketball players.

But Noah's choice appears to say more about his situation than about loyalty. His father is Yannick Noah, a former tennis star who won the French Open in 1983. Yannick Noah is now a rock star in France and is worth tens of millions of dollars. Joakim's mother is actress Cecilia Rhode, a former model who was Miss Sweden in 1978. I don't know how much she's worth, as she later divorced Yannick Noah, but I'm going to go out on a limb and say she's probably doing alright.

So Joakim Noah's decision, like the decision of any amateur player contemplating whether to declare, is more about the situation than about the individual. And for most amateur basketball stars, the decision to turn pro is deeply affected by the systemic poverty around them. Indeed, many players turn pro because they are from impoverished families--families who have been poor since they arrived in America centuries ago (or, more technically, were forcibly taken to America centuries ago). A son turning pro may be the only opportunity for a family to end its cycle of poverty, and it is an opportunity that may never come again--especially given the potential of being injured at any time on the court. And although we like to latch onto endearing narratives and vignettes of those Americans who intrepidly rose from poverty to wealth, aggregate statistics confirm the more common difficulty of moving out of poverty in spite of work ethic. In other words, when the chance is there get out of poverty, it's probably a good idea to take it, because income mobility may be as much about serendipity as about anything else.

But Joakim Noah was not faced with that situation. He's from a very wealthy family, and the millions he would obtain from his first NBA contract probably aren't as meaningful as they were to guys like Jonathan Bender and Al Jefferson and others similarly-situated, along with their families. And if God-forbid Noah blows out his knee next year, he'll still be from a very wealthy family. That is not to begrudge his decision, but before we condemn as disloyal and greedy those who decide to leave school early, it would probably be helpful to first look at the circumstances surrounding their decision. Doing so would probably tell us a lot more about them than does their actual choice.

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