Monday, July 10, 2006

NBA Earnings as a Marathon, not a Race: Lebron James to Take Less Than Max

According to ESPN's Stephen A. Smith, Lebron James has informed the Cavaliers that while he is willing to sign an extension, he will not sign a max contract (5 years, $80 million), which the Cavs prefer. Instead, he is only willing to sign a 4-year extension worth $60 million. Considering that NBA contracts are guaranteed, you might wonder why he wouldn't want to maximize his earnings and take as much money as is on the table? It's because of this:

With the NBA's collective bargaining agreement set to expire at the end of the 2010-11 season, James could be positioning himself for an even bigger payday as a free agent when the cap goes up. Under a new agreement, James and other big stars could be in line for deals in the neighborhood of six years and up to $150 million.
James' age may be a factor here as well. Incredibly, he's still just 21 years-old. And when his 4-year extension expires, it will be the summer of 2011 and he will be 26 years-old. It would seem that he would be better positioned for the $150 million, 6-year contract at that point than if he were 27 years-old. But then again, it probably won't matter because he'll likely be the NBA best's player and able to command the max regardless of whether he is 26 or 27.

But here's where age may matter: let's think about James' bargaining position after that $150 million, 6-year contract expires: he would undoubtedly be in a better position for another lucrative contract at age 33 than at 34. So perhaps Lebron and his agent, Leon Rose, are astutely thinking ahead, to a time that may seem very far off (2017 or 2018) but is highly influenced by what they do now, in 2006.

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