Sunday, January 16, 2005

Thoughts from the NFL Play-offs: In the six NFL play-off games that have taken place thusfar, I have found myself yelling at the television more than I would have liked. This is not because my team is playing -- the Cowboys erased all hope of that long ago. No, my frustration came with coaching strategies at the end of games and in overtime, especially when it came to setting up field goals.



All season long, teams have one goal: score touchdowns. Field goals are seen as consolation prizes: if you get close, but can't quite score, you try for 3 points. But near the end of games and in overtime, why does the focus shift to trying for a field goal? In the Chargers-Jets game last weekend, the Chargers had a first down on the Jets 23 following two big games by Tomlinson. So, do the Chargers keep going with their game plan? No. Instead, the team runs three plays where they look like they are training to gain nothing. The play call seems to have been - "fall down." Your quarterback has thrown only seven interceptions all year. Your running back lost only two fumbles this year. You have a stud tight end that thrives in the red zone. And, most importantly, you have a ROOKIE kicker. Why would you be content on the 23-yard line, when you could try for a touchdown, or at least, move into chip-shot range?



After Nate Kaeding missed the 40-yard field goal, the Jets drove down the field, and thanks to a big play by LaMont Jordan, were set up for a much easier 28-yard field goal. But, obviously, the lesson of trying for the end zone was lost on them.



Fast-forward to yesterday. Jets have played an incredible game against the Steelers and are in a position to win. Granted, their offense has not had a great game -- not scoring a touchdown, but they have managed to pick up yardage near the end of the 4th quarter as the Pittsburgh defense grew more and more tired. The Jets try and score a touchdown with two minutes to go, but are forced to try a 47-yard field goal, which bounces just short off the cross-bar. Miraculously, the Jets get the ball back immediately and in fantastic field position, at the Steelers 36. Curtis Martin immediately picks up a first down, moving the team to the 25, where they promptly give up. Three play calls of "fall down," followed by a 43-yard field goal attempt. No good. And to be clear, time was not a factor, because the Jets let the clock run after 1st down, and then called timeouts.



In overtime, the Steelers got the ball after a Jets punt and moved methodically down the field. Though they were in field goal range after a 9-yard run to the 27, the team continued to run, moving the ball up to the 15 and a much easier 33-yard attempt. Good. Game over.



Obviously, hindsight is 20/20, but it is becoming apparent that NFL coaches are too conservative at the end of games, especially in overtime. Almost anytime a team is in range of a 45-yard or less field goal, coaches are content to stop trying to gain yards, calling plays only to run time off of the clock or to set up their kicker on the appropriate hash mark. But why is this? This season, the number of field goal attempts from 40-49 yards and 30-39 yards were nearly identical: 257 and 258, respectively. But teams made twenty-five more field goals in the 30-39 range, for a percentage of 82%, rather than 72%. Kickers get even better from 20-29 yards. Again, there were a similar number of attempts from this range in 2004 - 252. But NFL kickers missed only nine field goals from this range all season, for a rate of 96%. Yes, professional kickers should be able to make field goals of 40 and 43 yards. But one kicker is a rookie playing in his first play-off game. The other is playing on the road, in a stadium where the longest field goal ever is 46 yards. And he just missed from 47. Why not get closer?



Perhaps Gregg Easterbrook is on to something. His theory is that coaches coach so that they cannot be blamed. If a coach continues to try and score a touchdown, and the result is a turnover, the coach will be blamed. But if the field goal kicker misses, the heat falls on the kicker. I think this may be part of the problem. The solution? Let's start blaming the coaches for going too conservatively at the end of games. Run high-percentage plays. Tell the quarterback to throw out of bounds if he is uncertain. Train the running backs to hold onto the ball. But don't stop trying.



Or, if you are not going to try, then run the kicker out onto the field on first down. This means that he will have less time to think about it, making it more like a regular season kick. It also changes the psychology from one of passivity (we are giving up at this spot) to one of action (we are winning now). It is the difference between trying to win and trying not to lose -- which no doubt rubs off on the team, and the kicker. It also means that if there is a bad snap or the play is broken, the team not only has another chance to kick, but it also has two more downs to pick up more yardage. I think going for the end-zone, or at least, a "chip-shot" kick should be the goal, but if the coach is set on being conservative, just get the kicker out there as soon as possible.



I hope that coaches will learn from these games and understand that field goals of 40+ are no guarantee, especially in a charged play-off atmosphere. A lot of fans will blame Nate Kaeding and Doug Brien this off-season, but let's not forget to address the coaches that could have set them up in better position, but failed to even try.



One Additional Thought: The Falcons will not win the Super Bowl because they committed a cardinal sin of football: running up the score. With 23-point lead, a first and goal, and only 2 minutes remaining, the Falcons could have kneeled 4 times, running out most of the clock and giving the Rams no chance to come back. Instead, they kept their first team offense out on the field and ran the ball in for another touchdown. Jim Mora, Jr. may have won the first play-off game for his family, but he showed little class at the end in doing so. Karma is a funny thing and it will come back to get Atlanta.

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