Leaving School Early: John Mayer v. Luol Deng

Meredith Goldstein of the Boston Globe had a revealing article a few weeks ago on the graduation rate at the Berklee College of Music in Boston. She found that only 48 percent of Berklee students earn their degrees. Why so low? Because many of the most talented students "turn pro" before graduating, often by age 18 or 19. (Goldstein, "At Berklee, Losing Students is Early Price of Success," Boston Globe, 5/4/05)

The low graduation rate at the Berklee College of Music is not unusual. Most performing arts institutions likewise have difficulty retaining students, as the best students can often leave school early and earn a very good salary. Some even do better. Among former Berklee students who did not graduate are John Mayer, Melissa Etheridge, Gavin DeGraw, and Quincy Jones.

So I wonder: Why aren't the same people upset about young basketball players turning pro also upset about young musicians turning pro? Is there really a difference between John Mayer dropping out of Berklee at age 19 and Luol Deng dropping out of Duke at age 19? Actually, one might say that Luol Deng made the safer choice, since he was set to gain a certain, guaranteed million-dollar contract, while John Mayer's compensation was heavily leveraged on sales.

The reality is that John Mayer and Luol Deng were rational thinkers, who acted much like any of us would have. And similarly, the students who don't leave school early are also rational: they know they aren't good enough yet.

If anything, actually, feedback is much more predictive for the NBA Draft than for the music world. Just consider last year's draft: of the 9 high schoolers that were eligible, 8 were selected in the first round (and thus secured guaranteed, multi-million dollar contracts). Did they know something that Dick Vitale didn't know? Yeah, they had oral promises from NBA general managers that, if still on the board, they would be picked in the first round. And the guys without those promises went to college instead (e.g., LeMarcus Aldridge, after not getting an oral promise, opted out of the 2004 Draft and instead attended the University of Texas; in contrast, Kendrick Perkins only remained in the 2003 Draft after he received an oral promise from Celtics' general manager Danny Ainge).

In other words, contrary to what many think of young basketball players, they tend to make just as smart and rational decisions as we, and our music friends, would.

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