Entrepreneurial Ambivalence

Starting a business is no different than writing a novel. Think about it. People like to read books. Producers and directors like to turn books into movies. It seems like a safe bet that people are going to continue reading books and watching movies. So, you should go out and write that Great American Novel and wait for Oprah to select it for her book club. But life is never that simple. Neither is entrepreneurship.

Most businesses fail. In fact, you have a 5% chance of starting and running a successful business. It is very rewarding if you succeed. But how do you succeed? What is the magic formula? You might as well ask what it takes to become a bestselling novelist.

The novelist and the entrepreneur both have the same aim. They have to convince a large section of the public to buy their shit. That public is fickle. It takes a lot for them to try something new. They tend to stick with the tried and true which is why branding is such a big deal. People hate getting fooled on a purchase, so they go back to the same hole again and again to drink.

You only have to look at the famous Microsoft/Apple battle to get this idea. Microsoft was first with DOS. When Apple came out with the Mac, Gates understood that the GUI was the future. But did he have to build a better version of the Mac to compete? Nope. All he had to do was build something good enough to keep people from switching. A lot of businesses and a lot of writers are able to coast on this fact.

Some ideas last longer than others. In the world of furniture, you can run a store for years. In the world of tech, you can be nothing in just a few years. This is because there are no new ideas in furniture like there are in tech.

I tell people the greatest entrepreneurial product ever is money. It is hard to tell what food people will like or what kind of clothes they will wear or whatnot. But with money, there is no question. People always want money and always will. This is why financial services are a no-brainer. You don't have to build a better mouse trap when you can just offer money.

But even if you have a good idea, that is not enough. You must also inspire people to go with your brand. Basically, you have to be fashionable, make a quality product, and has to be cheap enough for your customers to buy it. This is more art than science. This is why someone with a bullshit marketing degree ends up making more than an engineer.

Most business success boils down to pure dumb luck. Once you hit some luck, the savvy are able to milk it and ride it for all it is worth. Microsoft did this. Google is doing this now. Once you get some devoted customers, you just have to keep them from switching.

I read a lot about the Amish and their business success. Unlike the rest of us, the Amish have a 95% success rate when it comes to businesses. There is a bunch of stuff written about their success, but I think it boils down to the simple fact that they never go with fad ideas. Not caring to be rich in order to buy consumer goods, they just work which turns into self-employment opportunities which turns into businesses. Ultimately, it is a strategy of hard work and risk aversion.

For me, I rail against bullshit jobs. Similarly, there are bullshit businesses. Over and over, I see the businesses that survive and thrive over the long term are the ones that eschew fads and fashion and focus on timeless value, honesty, and authenticity. The Amish abound with such qualities which is why they are so successful. In our world, most entrepreneurs are quick buck artists. They seem just like their infomercial peers--shallow and deceptive.

Starting and running a real business versus a bullshit business is hard work. It takes effort to provide quality products and services. It takes time for customers to recognize the value that you offer. But this long hard road is the one that matters because it is the one that lasts.

I don't know if I will do the entrepreneurship thing again, but I do know one thing. Any future business I start is going to be a real business and not a bullshit business. I am going to roll like the Amish.

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