Howard Decision Today - Perez and Rodriguez

Yesterday at the Renaissance Vinoy Resort and Golf Club in St. Petersburg, Florida, Ryan Howard, his father Ron, and agent Casey Close squared off against Astros president Tal Smith to see which side could convince a majority of three arbitrators that Howard either deserves the highest figure ever awarded to a first-year arbitration-eligible player ($10,000,000) or a modest raise from $900,000 to the Phillies offer of $7,000,000.

The Phillies have never lost a salary arbitration hearing. The $3,000,000 gap is considerable, and the largest in this arbitration cycle. Because Howard is a Super-2 player, Tal Smith argued that the $7,000,000 figure is more appropriate. Furthermore, with management winning all five hearings this year, I expect the Phillies and Smith will be happier today when the decision is announced. Service time, Howard’s 199 strikeouts, the drop in on-base percentage, batting average, and slugging percentage last year should also tip the scale towards the Phillies. Arbitrators have often been reluctant to award a huge increase, and that is exactly what they were asked to do in Howard’s case. There is no denying the great offensive production of the young slugger who was Rookie of the Year in 2005 and Most Valuable Player in 2006.

There were a number of fine articles posted yesterday including ones by Philadephia Inquirer columnist Jim Salisbury ("A Window on How Arbitration Works"), Bill Conlin of the Philadelphia Daily News ("Why Howard Will Win, Why He’ll Lose"), and MLB.com’s Ken Mandel, who posted a number of articles on MLB.com. Jon Heyman of si.com had some interesting inside information on the Chien-Ming Wang presentation ("Chien-Ming Wang) that underscores why it is difficult to predict outcomes when you have not heard the presentation. It is the same difficulty that one encounters when looking at appellate court decisions without consulting the briefs of counsel or, to a lesser extent, the oral arguments.

Oliver Perez of the Mets and Francisco Rodriguez of the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim take their shots at management today. If the Howard decision goes to management as I think it will, the Mets and the Angels could produce the first-ever clean sweep of the hearings. It should be an interesting final few days.

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