After this group shot was taken, several students tried to provoke a reaction by making funny faces and gestures., but the stone-faced, eyes-straight-ahead, and still-as-a-pole guard did not budge. Or did he?
Monday, July 30, 2012
Hey . . . did he just growl at me?
After this group shot was taken, several students tried to provoke a reaction by making funny faces and gestures., but the stone-faced, eyes-straight-ahead, and still-as-a-pole guard did not budge. Or did he?
Deanery at Windsor Castle
GB Out of Hibernation
Sport Card Collectors 2012 NFL Preview: NFC East
There is just something about the NFL that makes it my favorite sport. Don't get me wrong, I do watch baseball time to time. And a little basketball. I am not much of a hockey, racing, golf or bowling (other than playing it) person. The NFL is the only sport I can sit and watch an entire game of anymore. I don't know if its because I played it or grew up watching it...but I love the game. And because of this with the NFL season upcoming and the start of the preseason is soon...I thought I would share my opinions of how I think the divisions will break down and who will win each.
I will be breaking down 2 divisions a week up until the start of the season. Today's division is my favorite...the NFC East and here is how I think it will go down: (note: these are in order of how we think they will finish and what their records will be)
1. NEW YORK GIANTS (11-5)
The Super Bowl champions come into this season better and more healthier than the last. The defense will be better and even though the Giants lost Jacobs, Manningham and a few others they got better through the draft replacing those players.
Eli Manning had a huge season and there shouldn't be any reason why he shouldn't have another with Nicks and Cruz. The Giants also added weapons in Tight End Marcellus Bennett and rookie Wide Out Reuben Randle. The running game should be better with Bradshaw healthy and the surprise first round drafting of David Wilson, but the one position they didn't improve on was the offensive line. Hopefully someone will step up.
And as always, the Giants D should be tough with the only key losses being CB Aaron Ross and DE Dave Tollefson they should be able to pressure the qb as always and with the return of Terrell Thomas and possibly the other starting corner in Prince Amukamara who now has a season under his belt the Giants will be tough to beat as they try to get back to the Super Bowl.
2. PHILADELPHIA EAGLES (10-6)
The "Dream Team" comes into the season more prepared after playing together after a year. As last season went on the team seemed to gel better and they went on a winning streak and almost snuck into the playoffs after a rough start.
Lesean Mccoy turned out to be a tremendous weapon in Philly's run and pass attack. Michael Vick still has a lot to prove and Desean Jackson will try to prove himself as well after a big contract this past offseason. Philly added leadership to their D this year after adding Demaco Ryans who should shore up their linebacker core which lacked last year.
Overall there are big expectations this season for the Eagles and Andy Reid really needs to make sure this team comes together and makes some kind of run or Philly fans will be calling for his firing.
3. DALLAS COWBOYS (8-8)
Dallas comes in after a quite offseason, but a jump up in the draft to get Morris Claiborne to help out their weak secondary. They let go Terrence Newman to make room for Claiborne. Dallas' D looked good under Ryan's defensive scheme with only the secondary being the weak link. However, I don't know if they have improved enough on the back end to make a difference this season.
The offense got a boost last year when RB Demarco Murray went on a tear. But when he was lost for the rest of the season, the offense seemed lost. A healthy Murray would be beneficial for them. However, a troublesome Dez Bryant is not. He has a ton of talent and could be a Top 5 receiver in the league, but with him getting in trouble it not only hurts him..but hurts his team and teammates.
Overall With a talented offense, a good defense, Dallas could scare some teams. But once again it all falls on Tony Romo's shoulders in December. Can he make the right throws at the right times and win in a month that he normally struggles in? I think Romo is a good qb and will win a couple of games down the stretch, but I don't think the team overall is there quite yet for a Super Bowl run.
4. WASHINGTON REDSKINS (6-10)
A ton of changes in the offseason and it all starts at qb. The Redskins rotating qb situation last season with Beck, Grossman and others has come to an end and the Redskins got their fan base excited by drafting Robert Griffin III in this years draft giving up a ton of picks in exchange for him so they are hoping this is the guy that will lead them back to the Super Bowl. Also on offense they added the talent of Pierre Garcon and Josh Morgan to their WR core and they already have a good running back in Roy Helu who broke out towards the end of the season.
The defense was stellar last year and now they have new aqusitions in the secondary but I don't think there is enough there yet. London Fletcher coming back is a huge help and with talented LB's of Ryan Kerrigan and Brian Orakpo the defense should be good at getting pressure on the qb's.
Overall, I think the Redxkins and Mike Shannahan have a great start..but it will take another year or two to put it all together. Griffin has a ton of pressure on himself and I think he will handle it okay. But playing in the NFC East against some of the defenses will be rough for a rookie.
What do you guys think of my predictions? Did I rank a team too high? Too low? Give me your thoughts!
I will be breaking down 2 divisions a week up until the start of the season. Today's division is my favorite...the NFC East and here is how I think it will go down: (note: these are in order of how we think they will finish and what their records will be)
1. NEW YORK GIANTS (11-5)
The Super Bowl champions come into this season better and more healthier than the last. The defense will be better and even though the Giants lost Jacobs, Manningham and a few others they got better through the draft replacing those players. Eli Manning had a huge season and there shouldn't be any reason why he shouldn't have another with Nicks and Cruz. The Giants also added weapons in Tight End Marcellus Bennett and rookie Wide Out Reuben Randle. The running game should be better with Bradshaw healthy and the surprise first round drafting of David Wilson, but the one position they didn't improve on was the offensive line. Hopefully someone will step up.
And as always, the Giants D should be tough with the only key losses being CB Aaron Ross and DE Dave Tollefson they should be able to pressure the qb as always and with the return of Terrell Thomas and possibly the other starting corner in Prince Amukamara who now has a season under his belt the Giants will be tough to beat as they try to get back to the Super Bowl.
2. PHILADELPHIA EAGLES (10-6)
The "Dream Team" comes into the season more prepared after playing together after a year. As last season went on the team seemed to gel better and they went on a winning streak and almost snuck into the playoffs after a rough start. Lesean Mccoy turned out to be a tremendous weapon in Philly's run and pass attack. Michael Vick still has a lot to prove and Desean Jackson will try to prove himself as well after a big contract this past offseason. Philly added leadership to their D this year after adding Demaco Ryans who should shore up their linebacker core which lacked last year.
Overall there are big expectations this season for the Eagles and Andy Reid really needs to make sure this team comes together and makes some kind of run or Philly fans will be calling for his firing.
3. DALLAS COWBOYS (8-8)
Dallas comes in after a quite offseason, but a jump up in the draft to get Morris Claiborne to help out their weak secondary. They let go Terrence Newman to make room for Claiborne. Dallas' D looked good under Ryan's defensive scheme with only the secondary being the weak link. However, I don't know if they have improved enough on the back end to make a difference this season.The offense got a boost last year when RB Demarco Murray went on a tear. But when he was lost for the rest of the season, the offense seemed lost. A healthy Murray would be beneficial for them. However, a troublesome Dez Bryant is not. He has a ton of talent and could be a Top 5 receiver in the league, but with him getting in trouble it not only hurts him..but hurts his team and teammates.
Overall With a talented offense, a good defense, Dallas could scare some teams. But once again it all falls on Tony Romo's shoulders in December. Can he make the right throws at the right times and win in a month that he normally struggles in? I think Romo is a good qb and will win a couple of games down the stretch, but I don't think the team overall is there quite yet for a Super Bowl run.
4. WASHINGTON REDSKINS (6-10)
A ton of changes in the offseason and it all starts at qb. The Redskins rotating qb situation last season with Beck, Grossman and others has come to an end and the Redskins got their fan base excited by drafting Robert Griffin III in this years draft giving up a ton of picks in exchange for him so they are hoping this is the guy that will lead them back to the Super Bowl. Also on offense they added the talent of Pierre Garcon and Josh Morgan to their WR core and they already have a good running back in Roy Helu who broke out towards the end of the season.The defense was stellar last year and now they have new aqusitions in the secondary but I don't think there is enough there yet. London Fletcher coming back is a huge help and with talented LB's of Ryan Kerrigan and Brian Orakpo the defense should be good at getting pressure on the qb's.
Overall, I think the Redxkins and Mike Shannahan have a great start..but it will take another year or two to put it all together. Griffin has a ton of pressure on himself and I think he will handle it okay. But playing in the NFC East against some of the defenses will be rough for a rookie.
What do you guys think of my predictions? Did I rank a team too high? Too low? Give me your thoughts!
Marți, 31 iulie, partide internaționale oficiale
Jocurile Olimpice, feminin
Ora 16.30, Cardiff: Japonia – Africa de Sud
Efthalia Mitsi (Grecia) – Maria Luisa Villa, Yolanda Parga Rodriguez (Spania) – Kari Seitz (SUA)
Ora 16.30, Newcastle: Canada – Suedia
Hong Eun Ah (Coreea de Sud) – Sarah Ho (foto) (Australia), Kim Kyoung Min (Coreea de Sud) – Therese Neguel (Camerun)
Ora 19.15, Manchester: SUA – Coreea de Nord
Jenny Palmqvist – Anna Nystrom, Helen Karo (Suedia) – Bibiana Steinhaus (Germania)
Ora 19.15, Newcastle: Franța – Columbia
Quetzalli Alvarado – Mayte Chavez (Mexic), Shirley Perello (Honduras) – Jesica Di Iorio (Argentina)
Ora 21.45, Coventry: Noua Zeelandă – Camerun
Christina Pedersen – Hege Steinlund (Norvegia), Lada Rojc (Croația) – Kirsi Heikkinen (Finlanda)Ora 21.45, Londra: Marea Britanie – Brazilia
Carol Anne Chenard – Marie Charbonneau (Canada), Stacy Greyson (Jamaica) – Sachiko Yamagishi (Japonia)
Champions League, turul al III-lea preliminar, manșa I
Ora 20.00, Kiev: Dinamo Kiev – Feyenoord
Andre Marriner - Simon Long, Peter Bankes - Anthony Taylor (Anglia)
Ora 21.45, Motherwell (Scoția): Motherwell – Panathinaikos Atena
Pol van Boekel - Berry Simons, Nicky Siebert - Tom Van Sichem (Olanda)Evidence-Based Policy: Which Side are You On?
We'd all like to think that policy makers consider evidence from experts in how they make decisions. Of course they do, but in case after case, such consideration takes a form far from that which might be considered ideal by most experts. Typically, a decision is made based on considerations that have little or nothing to do with evidence, and only then is evidence sought out to support that decision. Science in all of its glorious bountifulness is almost always compliant.
Consider these two cases from opposite sides of the US political spectrum, the first having to do with abortion and the second climate change (surprise, surprise in both cases). These cases illustrate important dynamics associated with what I call "science arbitration" in The Honest Broker, a process focused on proffering advice on claims that can be resolved empirically, using the tools of science. Most people just call this "science advice." Science arbitration is distinct from Issue Advocacy and Honest Brokering of Policy Alternatives, both of which are focused on policy action, and are typically called "policy advice."
The first case comes from South Dakota where a US Appeals Court has ruled that doctors must inform women seeking an abortion that the procedure leads to an increased risk of suicide. The Minnesote Star-Tribune reports:
South Dakota can require doctors to warn women seeking abortions that they face an increased risk of suicide if they go through with the procedure, a federal appeals court ruled Tuesday.What is wrong with such a requirement you might ask?
The 8th Circuit Court of Appeals upheld the portion of the 2005 South Dakota law dealing with the suicide advisory 7-4.
"On its face, the suicide advisory presents neither an undue burden on abortion rights nor a violation of physicians' free speech rights," the court wrote in its majority opinion.
In September, a three-judge panel upheld U.S. District Judge Karen Schreier's decision to overturn the requirement following a lawsuit brought by Planned Parenthood. The decision Tuesday by the full 11-member court grants judgment to the state and vacates the permanent injunction against enforcing the provision.
In the UK in 2011, the government funded an expert assessment by the Academy of Medical Colleges to survey the state of the science of abortions and mental health, which concluded:
The rates of mental health problems for women with an unwanted pregnancy were the same whether they had an abortion or gave birth.Such "science arbitration" is difficult to do well, as I've often noted, but doing it well is essential to using expertise effectively in decision making. I find the process used by the UK to be trustworthy and its results compelling. (The fact that the most cited research showing a relationship is being considered for retraction should be noted as well.)
Regardless where one comes out on the state of the science, the strongest position that the South Dakota Court could justifiably take is that the evidence is equivocal. By mandating what doctors must tell patients the court is requiring them to lie. Not good.
Now to the other side of the US political spectrum. Here environmental activists are petitioning the US Secretary of Agriculture to lie to farmers and the public about the state of the science of human-caused climate change and the current US drought:
Environmental activists want top federal officials to directly address the possible connections between climate change and the current drought that’s crushing the life out of U.S. heartland, with potential implications for global food supplies.Just like in the case of abortion and mental health the link between human-caused climate change and the current drought is tenuous (to be polite). The IPCC, an international expert assessment body, recently released a report on extreme events that is squarely in my area of expertise, and which I have noted overall did an excellent job.
Specifically, Forecast the Facts and FoodDemocracyNow! want Secretary of Agriculture Tom Vilsack to directly address the massive implications of manmade climate change for our entire farming sector. Scientists are clear that climate change is already leading to more extreme weather, such as longer and more severe droughts, according to Daniel Souweine, campaign director for Forecast the Facts.
Souweine said that, in multiple press appearances last week, Secretary Vilsack dodged questions about what drought-stricken farmers need to know about climate change, saying that he’s “not a scientist,” and that the department is focused on the “near term.”
The groups say they’re trying to pin Vilsack down with a petition that reads, in part:
“Please tell farmers and the American public about the connections between climate change and the current drought, as well as the massive implications that climate change has for the future of American farming.”
On drought the IPCC concluded:
... in some regions droughts have become less frequent, less intense, or shorter, for example, central North America ...If this conclusion is solid, then these activists are asking the US government to lie to farmers and the public. Not good. Just like the abortion case described above, the strongest position that the environmental activists can legitimately take is that the science is equivocal and likely to remain that way for a very long time.
In a nutshell, for those who care about the integrity of science in decision making it is OK to divide the world into two camps -- Finally, a Manichean debate I can support!
However, doing such a dividing according to macro-political perspectives (left-right) are contributing to the problem, as are those who, at the micro-perspective are do the dividing according to specific policy preferences (e.g., restrict abortion, secure action on climate change).
The best way to divide the world into two camps are to segregate those who seek science to confirm political prejudices and those who support effective and trustworthy science arbitration, wherever it may lead. The scientific community has at times lost perspective in all of this complexity and found itself in the former category rather than the latter, siding with political advocates whose interests in the integrity of science come second to whatever issue of the day they are championing.
Securing evidence-based policy with integrity requires a ruthless adherence to the ideals of effective science arbitration, even when uncomfortable and inconvenient. Perhaps most uncomfortable of all is the realization that those who would champion the political causes supported by most scientists themselves would not champion the integrity of science itself when its results do not conform to their prejudices. The championing of scientific integrity is a cause unto itself.
