Rain Delays and "the Integrity of the Pennant Race"

An interesting side-note from Wednesday night, which is becoming widely accepted as one of the best nights of baseball ever.

The Red Sox game against the Orioles in Baltimore was delayed by rain for about 90 minutes in the seventh inning with Boston leading 3-2. This is not an inordinately long delay, but it's much more than the minimum (30 minutes) required for the umpires to decide to call the game. If they had, the Red Sox would have won, and presumably would be in a one-game playoff with Tampa Bay for the AL wild-card spot. But the generally accepted practice is that a game that important should not be called because of "the integrity of the pennant race." (Most agree that if the game had been between two non-contenders, it would have been called.)

I am not saying the game should have been called (or that it shouldn't). But I don't agree that the integrity of the pennant race is best protected by changing the rules in the interest of the integrity of the pennant race. Much like basketball referees who swallow their whistle at the end of the game in the mistaken belief that they are allowing the players to determine the result, deciding not to enforce a rule is as much an example of referees determining the outcome as overzealously enforcing one. In either case, one team is given an advantage it wouldn't have at another point in the game or season.

In this example, it worked out well for the Orioles, and through them the Rays. And it worked out well for baseball, which had a much more interesting outcome than it would have with a rain-shortened game. (Although had Boston won there would have been a one-game playoff on Thursday.) I'm just not sure that having different rules for "important" games is something baseball should be promoting.

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Spring Horses

Just a few random photos taken today and yesterday. Maude and Hooty are available for breeding lease and can be bred to Brennan or Hamish this season. Hooty's foal by Brennan will be for sale - I am super excited about the cross!

Maude, 23 years old and looking a picture!

Paddy, 22 years old and feeling good!

Hooty, 19 years old and in foal to Brennan

Hoots

Beautiful Hoots

Maude, not feeling her age

Maude and Snorkel who is now a yearling

Me and Norks

Please contact me via the blog, the website (www.tfsporthorses.webs.com) or email: talisman.farm@gmail.com if interested in our breeding leases or future foals.

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Darien Fenton Finally Does the Right thing

Labour MP, Darien Fenton has finally done the right thing.
She caused an outrage a week or so back, when
she she ripped into Sir Peter Leitch for supporting
New Zealand's Prime Minister John Key.

How anyone could rip into the Mad Butcher is beyond me,
his community work throughout his life,  his love
and passion for his family, friends and his sport is
something we should all admire.

Darien Fenton comments were pathetic and it
was the type of politics that don't belong in
the 21st, to rip into a private citizen is bad
form.

Was she genuine in her apology, probably not
it only came after the public outcry, but she
has said sorry, and hopefully other politicians
will learn from this.

Time will tell.

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VOTE FOR THE TUESDAY NIGHT SPORTS SHOW!

VOTING IN THIS YEAR'S RADIO CARDIFF AWARDS BEGINS ON 1ST OCTOBER.


PLEASE LEND YOUR VOTE AND SUPPORT TO THE TUESDAY NIGHT SPORTS SHOW.

Details to follow shortly.........

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A Guilty Farewell to Vintage Roadbikes

Earlier this month, I parted with my remaining vintage roadbikes: a 1982 Bianchi and a 1978 Francesco Moser. Both bicycles ended up going to people I know, and their futures look promising. The Moser will be built up as a geared roadbike again and ridden by a long-time local cyclist. The Bianchi will get a make-over and may end up riding in the Eroica. The bikes moved on to greener pastures, leaving me with only my Rivendell to contemplate lessons learned and a direction for the future.

I've been experimenting with vintage roadbikes since last summer, which has included riding other people's bikes and also buying a few for the express purpose of playing around with them. The bicycles I've tried in this manner have included examples of American, French, Japanese, English and Italian bikes from the late 1970s and early '80s. Not an enormous sample, but a nice beginner's crash course. Somewhat to my surprise, I found that I liked every Italian bicycle I tried, whereas the mid-tier French bicycles felt the worst. The Japanese bikes were comfortable, and I could see the roots of Rivendell's philosophy in their geometry and handling. It was very interesting - but ultimately unsustainable.

For one thing, even if a vintage bike is in good condition, it takes me a great deal of resources to set it up in a way I find ridable: Usually I have to change the brake levers, the handlebars, and - if I want to comfortably switch gears - the shifters. Not only does this require time and money, but it also ultimately changes the bike's character.

However, the bigger issue is that trying a modern roadbike this summer - and enjoying the benefits of its light, easy-to use components - has made me realise just how far I'd have to go to get the same level of performance out of a vintage bike. Assuming that I can find one in the correct size for me and with a sufficiently light, good quality racing frame, I would have to then put a modern wheelset and component group on it, as well as structurally alter the frame in order to make that possible - all just to determine whether the complete bike will be up to par. It does not seem like a practical endevour to me. 

Considering the kind of cycling I have been gravitating toward, I would ultimately like to have three roadbikes: a fully equipped touring bike that is capable of going off road, a fixed gear bike, and a "racy" bike that is suitable for competitive cycling. The first I already have. The second I am finally working on after a year of riding a conversion. And the third will be my next priority. I feel guilty that I don't see vintage in the equation, but practical needs trump aesthetic and historical interest. When I am older and have more time and money, I would love to collect gorgeous, historically significant vintage frames. But for now I would like to ride more, tinker less.

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Selective Importance of Science Integrity Guidelines

The EPA Inspector General has found that the agency failed to comply with the Administration's requirements for peer review in the preparation of its endangerment finding with respect to carbon dioxide (report can be found here in PDF).

The IG report has no direct bearing on climate policy either in EPA or beyond. What has been interesting has been to see various statements by observers about the significance of the IG report.  I'd speculate that these observers would have had different reactions had this report been requested by Henry Waxman in 2006 about the last administration's EPA.

For instance, Andrew Dessler, a climate scientist, finds the worry about process a distraction:

This is a battle of lawyer versus lawyer. The issues here are not scientific. If we start taking scientific advice from lawyers, we are in deep trouble.

 Kevin Trenberth, another climate scientist, thinks that the concern about process is all political:

"This has nothing to do with the science that justifies the endangerment finding and everything to do with politics," Trenberth said, adding that the IG's criticisms focused only on process and not the quality of science EPA is using. "There is nothing here that undermines the EPA's way forward."

Francisca Grifo of the Union of Concerned Scientists explains that the breakdown in process is not a big deal:

The process matters, but the science matters more and in this endangerment finding, the science is accurate.

Of course, during the Bush Administration concern about processes to ensure scientific integrity were all the rage. At that time it was generally understood that process matters, not simply because it helps to improve the quality of scientific assessments, but also because it helps to establish their legitimacy in the political process.  One sneers at process at some risk.

Of course, had the EPA endangerment finding gone through a more rigorous peer review, misleading and sloppy arguments might have been identified and corrected -- such as found in this example.

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Well That Settles It

From the Guardian, Al Gore updates us on the state of the science of extreme event attribution (emphasis added):

In a near hour-long speech to the Scottish low-carbon investment conference, Gore said the evidence from the floods in Pakistan, China, South Korea and Columbia was so compelling that the case for urgent action by world leaders to combat carbon emissions was now overwhelming, Gore said.

"Observations in the real world make it clear that it's happening now, it's real, it's with us," he said. Failing to take action meant the world would face a catastrophe.

He added that nearly every climate scientist actively publishing on the subject now agreed there was a causal link between carbon emissions and the sharp increase in intense and extreme weather events seen across the globe.

I have been asked by email for my response:

Further elaboration here.

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