Vale Wynyard Lagan Bay

This morning at 9.15am Nicky and I unlatched the gate to the Rainbow Bridge and sent our darling Lagan across to join his old friends waiting for him on the other side. He will be missed by many people who were lucky enough to share their lives, in part, with such a wonderful horse.

I really have few words to say at this time other than how incredibly blessed I have been to have owned such a super horse for so many years and how grateful I am to have had him in my life. I'm devastated to have lost him so young as I suppose I had counted on having him around for many, many more years but when their time comes, there is nothing we can do other than ensure that they are afforded the love and dignity that they deserve. He died as he lived and he lived well.

Somewhere in time's own space
There must be some sweet pastured place
Where creeks sing on and tall trees grow
Some paradise where horses go,
For by the love that guides my pen
I know great horses live again.
~Stanley Harrison

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Misrepresentation of the IPCC CO2 Emission Scenarios

In a correspondence in Nature Geoscience a group of scholars (Manning et al. 2010) take issue with claims made by the Global Carbon Project that has fed into oft-repeated claims that global emissions are increasing above the highest of IPCC scenarios. For instance, in 2008 the GCP issued a press release that claimed:

Emissions growth for 2000-2007 was above even the most fossil fuel intensive scenario of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (SRES-IPCC).

This perspective has been echoed by activists, such as Joe Romm, who wrote the following in Nature Reports Climate Change:

Carbon emissions from the global consumption of fossil fuels are currently above 8 GtC per year and rising faster than the most pessimistic economic model considered by the IPCC

The problem with such statements is that they are wrong. (To defend GCP a bit, their presentation has become a bit more nuanced in more recent years, but still not quite correct.) Manning et al. explain the problem that they seek to correct:

Fossil fuel CO2 emissions have increased significantly. However, contrary to some statements in recent publications1–3, current emissions are not higher than covered in the climate change scenarios used by the last two Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessments4,5. And although emissions were recently near the top of the range that has been covered6, the changes in atmospheric CO2 concentration follow long-term average emissions rather than short-term variations.

The problem lies in a technical distinction between scenario averages (the mean across a family of scenarios) and scenario markers (a representative scenario from a family). Manning et al. expalin:

We therefore take issue with the comparison8,9 of the estimated evolution of industrial CO2 emissions since 1990 with subgroup averages of the SRES scenarios, rather than with the illustrative scenarios. These comparisons can be misleading over the next few decades because the upper boundary of the range covered by subgroup average emissions is significantly lower than the upper boundary of the range of illustrative scenarios. As a result, the comparisons with subgroup averages have led others1–3,10 to incorrectly conclude that current emissions are higher than the values used in climate change projections. This may be spreading into general reviews of climate change science11,12, causing a growing inconsistency between the modelling work that has been done for the IPCC and its broader interpretation.

The figure at the top of this post is from the Manning et al. paper.

Interestingly, I wrote an email to the GCP in November, 2007 as part of a discussion on this exact issue, making essentially the same points. Here are some excerpts from what I sent to GCP:

The IPCC SRES has 40 scenarios from four "families" of emissions. The emissions profiles for fossil fuel and industry for these 40 are provided here:

http://www.grida.no/climate/ipcc/emission/5-2.htm

Looking across the 40 SRES scenario projections for 2010 fossil fuel and industry CO2 emissions shows a range of 7.25 to 10.32 GtC, equating to annual growth rates of .05% to 3.95% per year. If the 2000-2006 observed growth rate is 3.3% per year wouldn't this suggest that figure 7 in the November 15 GCP_CarbonCycleUpdate is fairly misleading, and in fact incorrect when it states:

"Current emissions are tracking above the most intense fossil fuel emission scenario established by the IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios-SRES (2000)"?

For its part the IPCC SRES report notes, "The wide ranges of energy and industry-related CO2 emissions in the SRES scenarios reflect the fact that the "best" or the "most likely" quantifications are nearly impossible to identify." Would it not be accurate to say instead that current emissions remain within the envelope of estimates provided by the IPCC in 2000, but in the top 12.5% of scenarios (there are 5 of 40 at a growth rate of 3.3%/year and higher for 2000-2010)? . . .

I think that taking either the marker or the average of the SRES scenario families is far less robust than simply presenting the envelope of projections in the entire 40 scenarios. The IPCC itself urges great caution in aggregating scenarios, and goes to great length to advise that there is no basis for assign probabilities to any of them (hence, no basis for averaging).

So I would urge some greater caution in how you present the recent trends than I observe in your powerpoint. They are surprising and very significant, but they are not outside the IPCC SRES envelope (though perhaps outside your own simpliifcation of that envelope). Your message is far too important to risk being caught up in such a silly point.

The fact that emissions have been running at the top half of the SRES range, and above most of the marker scenarios is troubling enough, for reasons that we explained in Nature in 2008 (Pielke et al. 2008, PDF). There is no need to misrepresent the science to claim that things are worse than we thought. The are already worse than we thought without the misrepresentation.

Kudos to Manning et al. for helping to set the record straight.

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Offshore Drilling Realities

Earlier this week, Senator John Kerry (D-MA) dresses down someone (who, I wonder?) for apparently showing a lack of understanding of the realities of oil exploration in the Gulf of Mexico:

Now we are not going to stop drilling in the Gulf tomorrow, folks. Let’s be realistic. There are 48,000 wells out there. One of them went sour. About 30 percent of our transportation fuel comes from the Gulf. You think Americans are going to suddenly stop driving to work tomorrow? Do you think people are going to stop driving the trucks to deliver the goods to the department stores? Not going to happen.

Today's FT Lex Column offers some additional realities:

US regulations could become so onerous that offshore activity dries up in North America, but this would boost the appeal of fields off West Africa, Brazil and in the Barents Sea. And, though it seems callous with crude still fouling the Gulf, keeping North American offshore drilling viable may pose less environmental risk than other options. Incremental barrels would come from abroad by tankers statistically more likely to spill, or from ecologically damaging oil sands, today’s marginal supplier.

The economic attractions of offshore drilling are just too compelling for the industry to be spooked even by BP’s debacle. Oilmen will go where the oil is, however painful their burns.

It speaks to the perverse counter-intuitive nature of energy and climate policies that the best-intentioned actions -- strengthening US drilling regulations, could lead to greater environmental risks and do nothing to address carbon dioxide emissions. Policy design desperately needs to catch up with real-world complexities.

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Gotta Get Rand!

The South African currency is called the rand (abbreviated "R" or "ZAR") and is currently trading at $1 = 7.59 ZAR (or 1 ZAR = .13). As you can see, the colorful bills come in denominations of 10, 20, 50, 100, and 200 rand.

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A Father to the Fatherless?

By Chris Willertz, Winton Woods Wrestling, OH

There was a time when coaching a sport was all about coaching a sport.  Teaching specific sport skills, emphasizing teamwork, having fun and enjoying young people were the prime elements of the life of a youth coach.  As so many of us realize, coaching is so much more now.  The emphasis on winning, developing talent, getting kids into college or the best schools has become the priority; like what your  sports involvement can do for you! 

At Winton Woods, our wrestling program is about all of the things mentioned above, in various degrees.  But, I would argue, our program is most about trying to train boys into men.  Sadly, we have a lot of absentee fathers in our community.  There are many single mothers trying to raise children and make ends meet.  I think God asks everyone of us to father our own children but to help the orphans and the widows as well.  Since this is the majority of our boys at Winton Woods, I feel it would be an injustice NOT to try to father our fatherless.

Fathering the fatherless is hard work!  This is true especially in the spring when school is about to let out.  If you’ve ever really tried to train teenage boys you know what I mean.  So many want an adult fighting for them and against them!  So many crave the attention and the discipline.  

Don’t throw up your arms and say I can’t do it.  Get smart.  Use your brain, your wisdom.  Figure out rewards for good behavior, figure out consequences for bad behavior, expect to fight the same fight over homework, effort, respect, day after day after day after day.  

I can’t remember the number of times my dad told me to do my homework and the punishments I received for not doing it.  But he did it for me and my older brother, and countless students he taught at Saginaw Valley State University. Convince yourself that you can do it too and that you are not going to give up.

Our work at Winton Woods is difficult.  I see forty or fifty teenage boys a day that need fathering.  And I am supposed to teach them history and wrestling too!?  It’s a daunting task.  I can’t do it by myself.  We can’t do it by ourselves.  We need you!  We need you to pray for us.  We need you to help us financially (so many of the boys don’t experience real initiations provided by their own families, we have to provide them for them).  

We need you to father fatherless teenage boys.  We need you to tell friends and family about the plight so many boys are facing, NO INITIATIONS INTO MANHOOD BY ADULTS WHO REALLY CARE ABOUT THEM!  We need our society to see how weak uninitiated men are harmful to the women they love, the children they create, the communities which they live and ultimately to themselves.

It is clear God wants all of us to do our part, to help Him.  Are you willing to do your part, to fight for the soul of a young person?  Christ did it for you, why not return the favor?

“For the Lord your God is God of gods and Lord of lords, the great God, mighty and awesome, who shows no partiality and accepts no bribes.  He defends the cause of the fatherless and the widow, and loves the alien, giving him food and clothing.”

Deuteronomy 10: 17-19

“Do not deprive the alien or the fatherless of justice.”

Deuteronomy 24: 17

“Do not withhold discipline from a child.”

Proverbs 23: 13

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Recurring Themes

I have been keeping this blog for five years now. I've experienced a lot during that time, and my thinking has evolved a bit. But I've noticed that I keep coming back to the same themes again and again. So, here's a list of those themes.

1. Happiness comes from work.

If anyone wants the secret to happiness, it is right in front of you. Work. That's it. Just make yourself busy. Stop navel gazing. Stop ruminating. Just immerse yourself in your work. Put together a list of all the things you want to do in life and throw yourself into accomplishing them. This will make you happy.

2. There is no God.

God does not exist. I know this because there is no evidence for his existence. Changing my mind requires that you produce evidence. You will never have that evidence. Enjoy your delusion.

3. Government is evil.

Government is always a negation of freedom. Always. It consumes your wealth, curtails your liberty, and takes innocent life. Government must be limited.

4. Love is bullshit.

Love is nature's trick to make you reproduce. Most people cheat. Women marry for money. Between love and lust, stick with lust. Fuck them and forget them.

5. Extraordinary success is the product of luck.

Everyone wants to be rich and famous. In striving to be rich and famous, these people end up poor and unknown. This is because it is dumb luck that makes people rich and famous. Ordinary success is the product of work. This is being responsible and respected. No one cares about responsibility and respect. They all want to be Paris Hilton.

6. Blue collar work is real work.

White collar work is bullshit. It is mostly politics and wasting time and trying to get over on others. Blue collar work is authentic. It is tangible and real. It makes the world better. It is honest. It brings satisfaction and happiness.

7. Minimalism is superior to consumerism.

You need very little to be happy and enjoy your life. More stuff does not yield more happiness. Less stuff yields more freedom. Simple living is sustainable living. You live within your means. You check out of the status game. You have more money and less baggage.

Those are my recurring themes. I will visit them again. I may discover some new ones as well.

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Academic Rigor, Anyone?

To disabuse readers of any notion that "Seminar Abroad 2010: FIFA World Cup/South Africa" is anywhere near a gut course, one need only know that the students -- under the tutelage of Dr. Dan Covell -- were required to read three books*, write two response papers, research and present on a course-related topic, submit a post-trip assessment of findings, and actively participate in in-country events and activities. Happily, most of the assignments were completed in the spring, which provided students with a fuller appreciation of the social, political, and economic dynamics of international soccer and modern-day South Africa.

*Playing the Enemy: Nelson Mandela and the Game that Made a Nation, by John Carlin; Franklin Foer's How Soccer Explains the World; and A History of South Africa, by Leonard Thompson.

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